Football · Romania Liga I · 24/08, 20:30

Prediction: Otelul Galati vs FC Arges Pitesti

Team pages: Otelul Galati · FC Arges Pitesti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Otelul Galati1.3

FC Arges Pitesti1.11

1X2

39% 31% 30%

Otelul Galati Draw FC Arges Pitesti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Otelul Galati 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWDDLD

FC Arges Pitesti 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLWWWD

Head-to-head

Otelul Galati 1–1 FC Arges Pitesti (2 last)

Otelul Galati2-1FC Arges Pitesti
FC Arges Pitesti2-0Otelul Galati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Otelul Galati 1530 · FC Arges Pitesti 1522

	Otelul Galati	Draw	FC Arges Pitesti
Our model	39%	30%	30%
Market	39%	32%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Otelul Galati	FC Arges Pitesti
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.5	6.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.88

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.44
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.58 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +1’	2.38	2.88	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:43	2.45	2.67	3.57
05:21	2.44▼	2.69▲	3.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Otelul Galati 1–0–1 FC Arges Pitesti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 Romania Liga I	Otelul Galati	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Arges Pitesti
18/08/25 Romania Liga I	FC Arges Pitesti	2-0 HT 0-0	Otelul Galati

Standings · Romania Liga I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Bucharest	6	4	1	1	13	4	13
2	FCSB	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
3	Rapid Bucuresti	6	3	2	1	7	3	11
4	FC Arges Pitesti	5	3	1	1	4	3	10
5	CS Corvinul Hunedoara	6	2	3	1	7	3	9
6	Universitatea Cluj	5	3	0	2	7	6	9
7	Petrolul Ploiesti	6	3	0	3	4	8	9
8	Farul Constanta	5	2	2	1	9	7	8
9	CS U Craiova	5	2	1	2	10	7	7
10	Otelul Galati	5	1	3	1	6	6	6
11	ACS Sepsi	5	1	3	1	2	2	6
12	FC Voluntari	5	1	1	3	4	13	4
13	CFR Cluj	4	1	0	3	7	8	3
14	FC Botosani	5	0	3	2	6	8	3
15	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna	6	0	3	3	3	9	3
16	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Otelul Galati	FC Arges Pitesti
CS U Craiova	1-1 D	1-0 W
Petrolul Ploiesti	0-1 L	1-0 W
Dinamo Bucharest	1-1 D	1-2 L
CFR Cluj	2-1 W	1-1 D
Farul Constanta	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Otelul Galati (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Otelul Galati

WDDWWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	CS U Craiova Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
09/08	Petrolul Ploiesti Romania Liga I	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
31/07	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
24/07	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna Romania Liga I	2-0	2-2	4	2	D
18/07	CFR Cluj Romania Liga I	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
18/05	Petrolul Ploiesti Romania Liga I	3-1	5-1	5	5	W
09/05	Farul Constanta Romania Liga I	1-0	3-2	3	8	W
02/05	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga I	0-2	2-2	3	5	D
25/04	FC Botosani Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
17/04	ACS UTA Batrana Doamna Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	8	7	W

FC Arges Pitesti

LLLDDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Farul Constanta Romania Liga I	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
09/08	CS U Craiova Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
31/07	FK Csikszereda Miercurea Ciuc Romania Liga I	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
24/07	Petrolul Ploiesti Romania Liga I	1-0	1-0	4	10	W
17/07	FCSB Romania Liga I	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
22/05	CFR Cluj Romania Liga I	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
15/05	Rapid Bucuresti Romania Liga I	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
10/05	Dinamo Bucharest Romania Liga I	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
02/05	Universitatea Cluj Romania Liga I	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
27/04	CS U Craiova Romania Liga I	0-1	0-1	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Otelul Galati vs FC Arges Pitesti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Otelul Galati win (39%). Probabilities: Otelul Galati 39%, draw 31%, FC Arges Pitesti 30%.

How many goals are expected in Otelul Galati vs FC Arges Pitesti?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Otelul Galati 1.3 · FC Arges Pitesti 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Otelul Galati vs FC Arges Pitesti?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.