Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 08/11, 17:00
Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev
Team pages: Shakhtar Donetsk · Dynamo Kiev
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Shakhtar Donetsk1.53
Dynamo Kiev0.92
1X2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Draw
Dynamo Kiev
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Shakhtar Donetsk
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Dynamo Kiev
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Shakhtar Donetsk
3–2–1
Dynamo Kiev
(6 last)
- Shakhtar Donetsk3-0Dynamo Kiev
- Dynamo Kiev1-2Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk3-1Dynamo Kiev
- Dynamo Kiev2-1Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk1-1Dynamo Kiev
- Shakhtar Donetsk2-2Dynamo Kiev
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shakhtar Donetsk 1597 · Dynamo Kiev 1557
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Dynamo Kiev | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shakhtar Donetsk (rating 1597 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Shakhtar Donetsk: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Dynamo Kiev | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 6 | 4.1 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shakhtar Donetsk 3–2–1 Dynamo Kiev
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/26 Ukraine Cup | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Dynamo Kiev |
| 03/05/26 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Dynamo Kiev | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 02/11/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Dynamo Kiev |
| 29/10/25 Ukraine Cup | Dynamo Kiev | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Shakhtar Donetsk |
| 14/05/25 Ukraine Cup | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Dynamo Kiev |
| 27/04/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Dynamo Kiev |
Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | 28 |
| 2 | Polissya Zhytomyr | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 25 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kiev | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 5 | Karpaty Lviv | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 8 | 19 |
| 6 | FC Zorya Lugansk | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | LNZ Lebedyn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 11 |
| 9 | Chernomorets Odessa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
| 11 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Veres Rivne | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 |
| 14 | Obolon Kyiv | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Kudrivka | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 29 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Shakhtar Donetsk | Dynamo Kiev |
|---|---|---|
| FC Zorya Lugansk | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Kolos Kovalivka | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FC Veres Rivne | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| LNZ Lebedyn | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Karpaty Lviv | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Polissya Zhytomyr | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shakhtar Donetsk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/10 | FC Zorya Lugansk Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/10 | FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | LNZ Lebedyn Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Dynamo Kiev
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/10 | FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | FC Zorya Lugansk Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/09 | Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | LNZ Lebedyn Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 31/08 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/08 | Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Shakhtar Donetsk win (51%). Probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 51%, draw 27%, Dynamo Kiev 22%.
How many goals are expected in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Shakhtar Donetsk 1.53 · Dynamo Kiev 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kiev?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.