Football · Chile Copa de la Liga · 12/07, 21:00
Prediction: Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Coquimbo Unido1.59
Union La Calera0.72
1X2
Coquimbo Unido
Draw
Union La Calera
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Coquimbo Unido
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Union La Calera
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Coquimbo Unido
6–0
Union La Calera
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coquimbo Unido 1577 · Union La Calera 1474
| Coquimbo Unido | Draw | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Coquimbo Unido (rating 1577 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Coquimbo Unido: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Coquimbo Unido | Union La Calera | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.9 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.5 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coquimbo Unido 6–0–0 Union La Calera
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/26 Chile Copa de la Liga | Union La Calera | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 25/04/26 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 02/11/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Coquimbo Unido | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union La Calera |
| 02/07/25 Chile Cup | Union La Calera | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Coquimbo Unido |
| 08/06/25 Chile Cup | Coquimbo Unido | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union La Calera |
| 17/05/25 Chile Liga de Primera | Union La Calera | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Coquimbo Unido |
Standings · Chile Copa de la Liga · Copa de la Liga 2026, Group D
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union La Calera | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Audax Italiano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | La Serena | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coquimbo Unido
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Union La Calera Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Deportes Iquique Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 02/07 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 27/06 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 23/06 | Deportes Limache Chile Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Deportes Iquique Chile Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | O'Higgins Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 06/06 | Deportes Concepcion Chile Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportes Limache Chile Liga de Primera |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 27/05 | Nacional De Football Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
Union La Calera
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Coquimbo Unido Chile Copa de la Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 02/07 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 28/06 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Cup |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 21/06 | Union San Felipe Chile Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/06 | Universidad de Chile Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | La Serena Chile Copa de la Liga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/05 | Universidad de Concepcion Chile Liga de Primera |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Palestino Chile Liga de Primera |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Coquimbo Unido win (59%). Probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 59%, draw 25%, Union La Calera 17%.
How many goals are expected in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Coquimbo Unido 1.59 · Union La Calera 0.72), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.