Football · Montenegro Druga Liga · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Berane vs FK Podgorica

Team pages: Berane · FK Podgorica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Berane1.05

FK Podgorica1.34

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Berane Draw FK Podgorica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Berane 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLDDL

FK Podgorica 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDDDDW

Head-to-head

Berane 1–2–3 FK Podgorica (6 last)

FK Podgorica3-1Berane
Berane2-1FK Podgorica
FK Podgorica0-0Berane
Berane1-1FK Podgorica
Berane1-4FK Podgorica
FK Podgorica1-0Berane

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Berane 1434 · FK Podgorica 1556

	Berane	Draw	FK Podgorica
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Podgorica (rating 1434 vs 1556).
H2H favours FK Podgorica: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Berane	FK Podgorica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.5	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.3	1.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/83/17%	57/43/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.3	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:43 +4’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Berane 1–2–3 FK Podgorica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Montenegro Druga Liga	FK Podgorica	3-1 HT 1-1	Berane
04/04/26 Montenegro Druga Liga	Berane	2-1 HT 2-1	FK Podgorica
02/12/25 Montenegro Druga Liga	FK Podgorica	0-0 HT 0-0	Berane
28/09/25 Montenegro Druga Liga	Berane	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Podgorica
25/05/24 Montenegro Druga Liga	Berane	1-4	FK Podgorica
03/04/24 Montenegro Druga Liga	FK Podgorica	1-0 HT 1-0	Berane

Standings · Montenegro Druga Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Podgorica	7	3	4	0	12	7	13
2	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje	7	4	1	2	12	9	13
3	FK Zeta Golubovci	7	3	3	1	11	7	12
4	FK Lovcen	7	3	1	3	11	14	10
5	FK Grbalj Radanovici	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
6	FK Rudar Pljevlja	7	2	3	2	9	11	9
7	FK Budva	7	2	2	3	10	8	8
8	FK Kom Podgorica	6	2	2	2	7	6	8
9	FK Iskra Danilovgrad	7	2	1	4	4	8	7
10	Berane	7	0	2	5	3	11	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Berane	FK Podgorica
FK Grbalj Radanovici	0-3 L	0-0 D
FK Budva	1-1 D	2-1 W
FK Kom Podgorica	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Zeta Golubovci	0-2 L	3-3 D
FK Lovcen	2-3 L	3-0 W
FK Iskra Danilovgrad	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Podgorica (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Berane

DLLLLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Grbalj Radanovici Montenegro Druga Liga	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/09	FK Budva Montenegro Druga Liga	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	FK Kom Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
06/09	FK Zeta Golubovci Montenegro Druga Liga	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	FK Lovcen Montenegro Druga Liga	–	2-3	–	–	L
23/08	FK Iskra Danilovgrad Montenegro Druga Liga	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
16/08	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Druga Liga	0-0	0-1	3	10	L
24/05	FK Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
20/05	OFK Igalo Montenegro Druga Liga	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
16/05	FK Lovcen Montenegro Druga Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

FK Podgorica

WDWWWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FK Budva Montenegro Druga Liga	2-1	2-1	4	8	W
17/09	FK Zeta Golubovci Montenegro Druga Liga	3-0	3-3	5	3	D
12/09	FK Iskra Danilovgrad Montenegro Druga Liga	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	FK Rudar Pljevlja Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
30/08	FK Grbalj Radanovici Montenegro Druga Liga	–	0-0	–	–	D
23/08	FK Kom Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
16/08	FK Lovcen Montenegro Druga Liga	–	3-0	–	–	W
24/05	Berane Montenegro Druga Liga	1-1	3-1	6	2	W
20/05	FK Rudar Pljevlja Montenegro Druga Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
16/05	FK Internacional Montenegro Druga Liga	4-2	5-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Berane vs FK Podgorica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Podgorica win (42%). Probabilities: Berane 29%, draw 29%, FK Podgorica 42%.

How many goals are expected in Berane vs FK Podgorica?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Berane 1.05 · FK Podgorica 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Berane vs FK Podgorica?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.