Football · USA USL Super League Women · 24/10, 01:30
Prediction: Lexington SC (W) vs Sporting JAX (W)
Team pages: Lexington SC (W) · Sporting JAX (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
Lexington SC (W)1.52
Sporting JAX (W)1.41
1X2
Lexington SC (W)
Draw
Sporting JAX (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Lexington SC (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Sporting JAX (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lexington SC (W)
3–1
Sporting JAX (W)
(4 last)
- Sporting JAX (W)0-1Lexington SC (W)
- Sporting JAX (W)1-2Lexington SC (W)
- Lexington SC (W)0-3Sporting JAX (W)
- Lexington SC (W)4-2Sporting JAX (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lexington SC (W) 1524 · Sporting JAX (W) 1499
| Lexington SC (W) | Draw | Sporting JAX (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lexington SC (W): 3-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lexington SC (W) | Sporting JAX (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.8 | 3.3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC (W) 3–0–1 Sporting JAX (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/26 USA USL Super League Women | Sporting JAX (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lexington SC (W) |
| 25/04/26 USA USL Super League Women | Sporting JAX (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Lexington SC (W) |
| 21/02/26 USA USL Super League Women | Lexington SC (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Sporting JAX (W) |
| 31/10/25 USA USL Super League Women | Lexington SC (W) | 4-2 HT 1-0 | Sporting JAX (W) |
Standings · USA USL Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent (W) | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 22 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX (W) | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 | Lexington SC (W) | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity (W) | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| 5 | DC Power (W) | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 9 |
| 7 | Brooklyn (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 7 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lexington SC (W) | Sporting JAX (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 1-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Dallas Trinity (W) | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Carolina Ascent (W) | 0-1 L | 3-3 D |
| DC Power (W) | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Brooklyn (W) | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting JAX (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lexington SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 12/10 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Sporting JAX (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 27/09 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 11 | 0 | L |
| 13/09 | Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/09 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/08 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lexington SC (W) vs Sporting JAX (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Lexington SC (W) 39%, draw 27%, Sporting JAX (W) 34%.
How many goals are expected in Lexington SC (W) vs Sporting JAX (W)?
The model expects 2.93 goals (Lexington SC (W) 1.52 · Sporting JAX (W) 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lexington SC (W) vs Sporting JAX (W)?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.