Football · USA USL Super League Women · 01/11, 00:00
Prediction: Carolina Ascent (W) vs Lexington SC (W)
Team pages: Carolina Ascent (W) · Lexington SC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Carolina Ascent (W)1.31
Lexington SC (W)1.06
1X2
Carolina Ascent (W)
Draw
Lexington SC (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Carolina Ascent (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Lexington SC (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carolina Ascent (W)
3–2–1
Lexington SC (W)
(6 last)
- Lexington SC (W)0-1Carolina Ascent (W)
- Lexington SC (W)1-1Carolina Ascent (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-0Lexington SC (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-2Lexington SC (W)
- Lexington SC (W)1-1Carolina Ascent (W)
- Lexington SC (W)0-4Carolina Ascent (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carolina Ascent (W) 1582 · Lexington SC (W) 1512
| Carolina Ascent (W) | Draw | Lexington SC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carolina Ascent (W) (rating 1582 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Carolina Ascent (W): 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carolina Ascent (W) | Lexington SC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.6 | 1.6 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carolina Ascent (W) 3–2–1 Lexington SC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/26 USA USL Super League Women | Lexington SC (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 31/05/26 USA USL Super League Women | Lexington SC (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 12/04/26 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lexington SC (W) |
| 07/02/26 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Lexington SC (W) |
| 11/10/25 USA USL Super League Women | Lexington SC (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 23/03/25 USA USL Super League Women | Lexington SC (W) | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
Standings · USA USL Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent (W) | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX (W) | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 15 |
| 3 | DC Power (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 14 |
| 4 | Lexington SC (W) | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 5 | Dallas Trinity (W) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 6 | Brooklyn (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 10 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 9 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 7 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carolina Ascent (W) | Lexington SC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| DC Power (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Sporting JAX (W) | 3-3 D | 3-3 D |
| Brooklyn (W) | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Dallas Trinity (W) | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Carolina Ascent (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carolina Ascent (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 17/10 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 20/09 | Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
Lexington SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
3-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 12/10 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 04/10 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 12/09 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carolina Ascent (W) vs Lexington SC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carolina Ascent (W) win (41%). Probabilities: Carolina Ascent (W) 41%, draw 29%, Lexington SC (W) 30%.
How many goals are expected in Carolina Ascent (W) vs Lexington SC (W)?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Carolina Ascent (W) 1.31 · Lexington SC (W) 1.06), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Carolina Ascent (W) vs Lexington SC (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.