Football · Belgium First Division B · 15/08, 20:00

Prediction: Excelsior Virton vs Lierse Kempenzonen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Excelsior Virton1.46

Lierse Kempenzonen1.25

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Excelsior Virton Draw Lierse Kempenzonen

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Excelsior Virton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWLLD

Lierse Kempenzonen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDWLLWD

Head-to-head

Excelsior Virton 1–4–1 Lierse Kempenzonen (6 last)

Lierse Kempenzonen2-2Excelsior Virton
Excelsior Virton0-0Lierse Kempenzonen
Lierse Kempenzonen1-1Excelsior Virton
Excelsior Virton2-2Lierse Kempenzonen
Excelsior Virton2-1Lierse Kempenzonen
Lierse Kempenzonen2-0Excelsior Virton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excelsior Virton 1531 · Lierse Kempenzonen 1519

	Excelsior Virton	Draw	Lierse Kempenzonen
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excelsior Virton	Lierse Kempenzonen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +5’	2.10	3.50	2.88
08:26 +4’	2.15▲	3.50	2.80▼
16:51 +7’	2.00▼	3.50	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior Virton 1–4–1 Lierse Kempenzonen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/11/22 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	2-2 HT 1-0	Excelsior Virton
15/10/22 Belgium First Division B	Excelsior Virton	0-0 HT 0-0	Lierse Kempenzonen
17/04/22 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	1-1 HT 0-1	Excelsior Virton
12/12/21 Belgium First Division B	Excelsior Virton	2-2 HT 1-1	Lierse Kempenzonen
16/10/21 Belgium First Division B	Excelsior Virton	2-1 HT 2-1	Lierse Kempenzonen
22/08/21 Belgium First Division B	Lierse Kempenzonen	2-0 HT 1-0	Excelsior Virton

Standings · Belgium First Division B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KSC Lokeren Temse	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	Sporting Hasselt	1	1	0	1	0	3
3	Club Brugge II	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Gent II	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Genk II	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Eupen	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Lierse Kempenzonen	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RFC Liege	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Excelsior Virton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Francs Borains	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Anderlecht II	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	FCV Dender EH	1	0	1	0	1	0
15	Seraing United	1	0	1	0	2	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Excelsior Virton

WWLWWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Progres Niedercorn Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
15/07	RAAL La Louviere Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-3	2	3	L
11/07	F91 Dudelange Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
10/05	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
03/05	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	5-3	4	2	W
25/04	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
28/03	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-1	13	4	W
21/03	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Lierse Kempenzonen

LDLWDWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	KVV Thes Sport Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	Royal Cappellen Europe Friendlies	2-0	6-0	2	0	W
18/07	OH Leuven Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/07	Fortuna Sittard Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
28/06	KFC Nijlen Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-0	6	0	W
17/04	KSC Lokeren Temse Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/04	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
04/04	Francs Borains Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
21/03	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
13/03	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-2	2	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excelsior Virton vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Excelsior Virton win (41%). Probabilities: Excelsior Virton 41%, draw 27%, Lierse Kempenzonen 32%.

How many goals are expected in Excelsior Virton vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Excelsior Virton 1.46 · Lierse Kempenzonen 1.25), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs Lierse Kempenzonen?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.