Football · Belgium First Division B · 21/08, 20:00
Prediction: Anderlecht II vs Excelsior Virton
Team pages: Anderlecht II · Excelsior Virton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
Anderlecht II1.65
Excelsior Virton1.53
1X2
Anderlecht II
Draw
Excelsior Virton
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Anderlecht II
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Excelsior Virton
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Anderlecht II
2–0
Excelsior Virton
(2 last)
- Excelsior Virton1-3Anderlecht II
- Anderlecht II3-1Excelsior Virton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anderlecht II 1477 · Excelsior Virton 1537
| Anderlecht II | Draw | Excelsior Virton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior Virton (rating 1477 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Anderlecht II: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Anderlecht II | Excelsior Virton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.2 | 2.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Anderlecht II 2–0–0 Excelsior Virton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/23 Belgium First Division B | Excelsior Virton | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Anderlecht II |
| 07/10/22 Belgium First Division B | Anderlecht II | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Excelsior Virton |
Standings · Belgium First Division B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Eupen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Excelsior Virton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | KSC Lokeren Temse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Patro Eisden Maasmechelen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Francs Borains | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting Hasselt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Club Brugge II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | RFC Liege | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Anderlecht II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | FCV Dender EH | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | Seraing United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Genk II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Lierse Kempenzonen | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Gent II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anderlecht II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | FC Dordrecht Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | ROC Charleroi Belgium First Division B |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Division B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | SK Beveren Belgium First Division B |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | KSC Lokeren Temse Belgium First Division B |
1-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/03 | Eupen Belgium First Division B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/03 | KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division B |
0-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | Patro Eisden Maasmechelen Belgium First Division B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 28/02 | Club Brugge II Belgium First Division B |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Excelsior Virton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Lierse Kempenzonen Belgium First Division B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/07 | Progres Niedercorn Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 15/07 | RAAL La Louviere Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | F91 Dudelange Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division |
3-0 | 5-3 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Anderlecht II vs Excelsior Virton?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Anderlecht II win (40%). Probabilities: Anderlecht II 40%, draw 26%, Excelsior Virton 34%.
How many goals are expected in Anderlecht II vs Excelsior Virton?
The model expects 3.18 goals (Anderlecht II 1.65 · Excelsior Virton 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht II vs Excelsior Virton?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.