Football · Hungary NB I · 05/09, 17:30

Prediction: MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC

Team pages: MTK Budapest · Kisvarda FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

MTK Budapest2.13

Kisvarda FC1.16

1X2

59% 22% 19%

MTK Budapest Draw Kisvarda FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

MTK Budapest 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDLDWD

Kisvarda FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWLLDD

Head-to-head

MTK Budapest 4–2 Kisvarda FC (6 last)

MTK Budapest2-1Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC2-3MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest4-0Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC3-2MTK Budapest
MTK Budapest2-1Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC3-1MTK Budapest

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MTK Budapest (rating 1531 vs 1440).
H2H favours MTK Budapest: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MTK Budapest	Kisvarda FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.1	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:29

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.88 → 1.89▲	Pinn 1.89
X	3.72 → 3.77▲	Pinn 3.77
2	3.58 → 3.62▲	Pinn 3.62

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:18	1.88	3.72	3.58
11:28 +1’	1.89▲	3.77▲	3.62▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MTK Budapest 4–0–2 Kisvarda FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Hungary NB I	MTK Budapest	2-1 HT 1-0	Kisvarda FC
24/01/26 Hungary NB I	Kisvarda FC	2-3 HT 1-1	MTK Budapest
28/09/25 Hungary NB I	MTK Budapest	4-0 HT 2-0	Kisvarda FC
02/04/24 Hungary Cup	Kisvarda FC	3-2 HT 2-0	MTK Budapest
17/03/24 Hungary NB I	MTK Budapest	2-1 HT 2-0	Kisvarda FC
25/11/23 Hungary NB I	Kisvarda FC	3-1 HT 1-0	MTK Budapest

Standings · Hungary NB I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Puskas Academy	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
2	Ujpest	6	3	1	2	13	10	10
3	Gyori ETO	5	2	3	0	11	4	9
4	MTK Budapest	6	2	3	1	13	10	9
5	Vasas SC	6	2	2	2	10	7	8
6	Paksi	6	2	2	2	13	13	8
7	Ferencvarosi TC	4	2	1	1	5	5	7
8	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	6	2	1	3	6	10	7
9	Kispest Honved	5	1	3	1	8	8	6
10	Kisvarda FC	6	1	3	2	7	8	6
11	Debreceni VSC	6	1	3	2	6	9	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	6	1	0	5	5	15	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MTK Budapest	Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC	2-2 D	0-0 D
Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	2-1 W	1-2 L
Ujpest	1-1 D	2-4 L
Puskas Academy	2-3 L	2-0 W
Kispest Honved	3-3 D	1-1 D
Kazincbarcikai BSC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MTK Budapest (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MTK Budapest

WDDDWDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
22/08	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
15/08	Ujpest Hungary NB I	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
07/08	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-2	2-3	8	6	L
01/08	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	1-2	3-3	3	4	D
27/07	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	1-0	3-0	1	2	W
15/05	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
02/05	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
24/04	Kazincbarcikai BSC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/04	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	1-0	2-1	5	2	W

Kisvarda FC

LLLLDWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
23/08	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
15/08	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
08/08	Ujpest Hungary NB I	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
31/07	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
25/07	Kispest Honved Hungary NB I	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
16/05	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
02/05	Kazincbarcikai BSC Hungary NB I	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
25/04	Diosgyori VTK Hungary NB I	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
18/04	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	0-1	1-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MTK Budapest win (59%). Probabilities: MTK Budapest 59%, draw 22%, Kisvarda FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC?

The model expects 3.29 goals (MTK Budapest 2.13 · Kisvarda FC 1.16), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.