Football · Hungary NB I · 06/09, 17:45

Prediction: Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest

Team pages: Ferencvarosi TC · Ujpest

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Ferencvarosi TC2.28

Ujpest0.95

1X2

67% 20% 14%

Ferencvarosi TC Draw Ujpest

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferencvarosi TC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLDWWW

Ujpest 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Ferencvarosi TC 4–2–0 Ujpest (6 last)

Ujpest0-5Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC3-0Ujpest
Ujpest1-1Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC2-0Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC3-1Ujpest
Ujpest0-0Ferencvarosi TC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferencvarosi TC 1615 · Ujpest 1515

	Ferencvarosi TC	Draw	Ujpest
Our model	66%	20%	13%
Market	67%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferencvarosi TC (rating 1615 vs 1515).
H2H favours Ferencvarosi TC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferencvarosi TC	Ujpest
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.7	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.5	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.33▼	Pinn 1.38
X	4.33 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.94 ★
2	5.75 → 6.50▲	Pinn 6.68

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:37 +11’	1.40	4.33	5.75
22:30 +8’	1.36▼	4.50▲	6.25▲
05:34 +9’	1.33▼	4.50	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:11	1.41	4.64	6.14
22:39	1.37▼	5.01▲	6.76▲
05:41 +2’	1.36▼	5.09▲	6.95▲
04:11	1.36▲	5.05▼	6.94▼
07:40	1.38▲	4.94▼	6.68▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferencvarosi TC 4–2–0 Ujpest

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Hungary NB I	Ujpest	0-5 HT 0-2	Ferencvarosi TC
07/02/26 Hungary NB I	Ferencvarosi TC	3-0 HT 3-0	Ujpest
19/10/25 Hungary NB I	Ujpest	1-1 HT 0-1	Ferencvarosi TC
06/04/25 Hungary NB I	Ferencvarosi TC	2-0 HT 2-0	Ujpest
02/04/25 Hungary Cup	Ferencvarosi TC	3-1 HT 2-0	Ujpest
01/12/24 Hungary NB I	Ujpest	0-0 HT 0-0	Ferencvarosi TC

Standings · Hungary NB I

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Puskas Academy	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
2	Vasas SC	7	3	2	2	13	9	11
3	Ujpest	6	3	1	2	13	10	10
4	Ferencvarosi TC	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
5	Gyori ETO	6	2	3	1	11	7	9
6	MTK Budapest	6	2	3	1	13	10	9
7	Paksi	6	2	2	2	13	13	8
8	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus	7	2	1	4	8	13	7
9	Kispest Honved	5	1	3	1	8	8	6
10	Kisvarda FC	6	1	3	2	7	8	6
11	Debreceni VSC	6	1	3	2	6	9	6
12	Zalaegerszegi TE	6	1	0	5	5	15	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferencvarosi TC	Ujpest
Puskas Academy	2-1 W	0-2 L
Vasas SC	0-0 D	3-1 W
Paksi	2-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferencvarosi TC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	1-0	3-0	9	3	W
30/08	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
17/08	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
02/08	Vasas SC Hungary NB I	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
26/07	Paksi Hungary NB I	2-2	2-4	2	3	L
16/05	Zalaegerszegi TE Hungary NB I	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
03/05	Ujpest Hungary NB I	2-0	5-0	5	5	W
26/04	Paksi Hungary NB I	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
19/04	Gyori ETO Hungary NB I	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
14/04	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	2-1	2-1	3	4	W

Ujpest

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Vasas SC Hungary NB I	0-0	3-1	3	3	W
21/08	Paksi Hungary NB I	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
15/08	MTK Budapest Hungary NB I	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
08/08	Kisvarda FC Hungary NB I	2-1	4-2	4	2	W
02/08	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	2-1	4-2	6	6	W
24/07	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
16/05	Debreceni VSC Hungary NB I	0-2	1-2	6	7	L
03/05	Ferencvarosi TC Hungary NB I	0-2	0-5	3	5	L
25/04	Puskas Academy Hungary NB I	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
17/04	Nyiregyhaza Spartacus Hungary NB I	3-0	7-2	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferencvarosi TC win (67%). Probabilities: Ferencvarosi TC 67%, draw 20%, Ujpest 14%.

How many goals are expected in Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Ferencvarosi TC 2.28 · Ujpest 0.95), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferencvarosi TC vs Ujpest?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.