Football · Norway Cup · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Vag FK vs Egersund
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.74Total
Vag FK0.87
Egersund2.87
1X2
Vag FK
Draw
Egersund
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Vag FK
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Egersund
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vag FK 1475 · Egersund 1497
| Vag FK | Draw | Egersund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| Market | 3% | 8% | 89% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.74 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vag FK | Egersund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5.9 | 3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vag FK
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 25/06 | Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Trauma Norway Cup |
2-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
Egersund
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Stabaek Norway Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Stromsgodset Norway Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Sandnes Ulf Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Asane Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Moss Norway Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 27/06 | Sogndal Norway Division 1 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Haugesund Norway Division 1 |
3-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Stabaek Norway Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Stromsgodset Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 25/05 | Hodd Norway Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vag FK vs Egersund?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Egersund win (84%). Probabilities: Vag FK 5%, draw 11%, Egersund 84%.
How many goals are expected in Vag FK vs Egersund?
The model expects 3.74 goals (Vag FK 0.87 · Egersund 2.87), with a 55% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Vag FK vs Egersund?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.