Football · Norway Cup · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Baerum vs Mjondalen
Team pages: Baerum · Mjondalen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.73Total
Baerum1.14
Mjondalen2.59
1X2
Baerum
Draw
Mjondalen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Baerum
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Mjondalen
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Baerum
0–1–0
Mjondalen
(1 last)
- Mjondalen1-1Baerum
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Baerum 1553 · Mjondalen 1564
| Baerum | Draw | Mjondalen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| Market | 15% | 16% | 69% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Baerum | Mjondalen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4 / 2 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.4 | 2.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Baerum 0–1–0 Mjondalen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/14 Norway Division 1 Play-Offs | Mjondalen | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Baerum |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Baerum
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 7-1 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
4-2 | 6-3 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-1 | 7-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
Mjondalen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/06 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Baerum vs Mjondalen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Mjondalen win (68%). Probabilities: Baerum 14%, draw 17%, Mjondalen 68%.
How many goals are expected in Baerum vs Mjondalen?
The model expects 3.73 goals (Baerum 1.14 · Mjondalen 2.59), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Baerum vs Mjondalen?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.