Football · Norway Cup · 22/08, 15:00
Prediction: Rade IL vs Follo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.09Total
Rade IL2.14
Follo1.94
1X2
Rade IL
Draw
Follo
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Rade IL
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Follo
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rade IL 1571 · Follo 1378
| Rade IL | Draw | Follo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Market | 42% | 24% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rade IL (rating 1571 vs 1378).
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rade IL | Follo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.7 / 2.1 | 0.6 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 0.2 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.6 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.6 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rade IL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 09/08 | Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
5-1 | 8-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/06 | Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-2 | 3-5 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
5-1 | 7-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Østsiden Norway Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-7 | 1-8 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Follo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Rana FK Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 08/08 | Junkeren Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Trygg/Lade Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Tromsdalen Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/06 | Levanger Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 12/06 | Kjelsås Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Ullensaker/Kisa Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | Skeid Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Lørenskog Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Eidsvold TF Norway Division 2 Group 2 |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rade IL vs Follo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Rade IL win (42%). Probabilities: Rade IL 42%, draw 23%, Follo 35%.
How many goals are expected in Rade IL vs Follo?
The model expects 4.09 goals (Rade IL 2.14 · Follo 1.94), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Rade IL vs Follo?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.