Football · Croatia 2.NL · 22/08, 17:30

Prediction: NK Lucko vs NK Jarun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

NK Lucko1.38

NK Jarun1.19

1X2

40% 28% 32%

NK Lucko Draw NK Jarun

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Lucko 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLWDL

NK Jarun 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDLDD

Head-to-head

NK Lucko 0–2–0 NK Jarun (2 last)

NK Lucko1-1NK Jarun
NK Lucko1-1NK Jarun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Lucko 1441 · NK Jarun 1450

	NK Lucko	Draw	NK Jarun
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Lucko	NK Jarun
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/29/57%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.25

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +9’	2.20	3.25	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Lucko 0–2–0 NK Jarun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/21 Europe Friendlies	NK Lucko	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Jarun
30/01/19 Europe Friendlies	NK Lucko	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Jarun

Standings · Croatia 2.NL

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Uljanik	1	1	0	3	2	3
2	Bjelovar	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Dugo Selo	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Grobnican	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Inker Zapresic	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Jarun	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Koprivnica	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Lucko	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Krizevci	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Slavonija Pozega	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Solin	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Trnje	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Uskok	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Varteks Varazdin	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Zagora	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac	1	0	1	2	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Lucko

LLLDDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Karlovac Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
01/08	HNK Segesta Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
30/05	NK Croatia Dakovo Croatia 2.NL	–	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	Jadran LP Croatia 2.NL	–	2-3	–	–	L
09/05	NK Grobnican Croatia 2.NL	0-1	2-2	3	4	D
02/05	Varteks Varazdin Croatia 2.NL	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
24/04	NK Kustosija Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
18/04	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac Croatia 2.NL	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
11/04	NK Uskok Croatia 2.NL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L

NK Jarun

LLLWLLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	NK Krizevci Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
25/07	NK Krizevci Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
18/07	Mladost Zdralovi Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-3	0	0	L
30/05	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
22/05	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
17/05	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
10/05	NK Croatia Zmijavci Croatia 1.NL	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
02/05	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
24/04	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
18/04	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-1	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Lucko vs NK Jarun?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Lucko win (40%). Probabilities: NK Lucko 40%, draw 28%, NK Jarun 32%.

How many goals are expected in NK Lucko vs NK Jarun?

The model expects 2.57 goals (NK Lucko 1.38 · NK Jarun 1.19), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Lucko vs NK Jarun?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.