Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: FK Humenne vs STK Samorin

Team pages: FK Humenne · STK Samorin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

FK Humenne1.18

STK Samorin1.92

1X2

22% 24% 54%

FK Humenne Draw STK Samorin

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Humenne 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWDDL

STK Samorin 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDWDW

Head-to-head

FK Humenne 2–2–2 STK Samorin (6 last)

STK Samorin2-1FK Humenne
STK Samorin3-1FK Humenne
FK Humenne1-1STK Samorin
STK Samorin1-2FK Humenne
FK Humenne1-0STK Samorin
STK Samorin2-2FK Humenne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Humenne 1438 · STK Samorin 1578

	FK Humenne	Draw	STK Samorin
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours STK Samorin (rating 1438 vs 1578).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Humenne	STK Samorin
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.80

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:47 +17’	4.00	3.80	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Humenne 2–2–2 STK Samorin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/10/26 Slovakia Cup	STK Samorin	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Humenne
01/08/26 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Humenne
09/05/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	FK Humenne	1-1 HT 0-0	STK Samorin
27/10/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Humenne
23/03/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	FK Humenne	1-0 HT 0-0	STK Samorin
03/09/23 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Humenne

Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	STK Samorin	16	11	3	2	32	19	36
2	FC Petrzalka	16	10	3	3	25	12	33
3	MSK Povazska Bystrica	16	9	2	5	30	27	29
4	FC Tatran Presov	16	8	4	4	25	19	28
5	FK Pohronie	16	8	3	5	28	20	27
6	Slovan Galanta	16	8	2	6	28	27	26
7	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	16	7	4	5	26	18	25
8	MSK Zilina B	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
9	Inter Bratislava	16	6	6	4	36	23	24
10	OFK Banik Lehota	16	6	4	6	23	27	22
11	Slovan Bratislava B	16	5	6	5	23	20	21
12	OFK Malzenice	16	4	4	8	24	28	16
13	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	16	3	5	8	14	20	14
14	FK Humenne	16	3	4	9	14	26	13
15	MFK Zvolen	16	2	3	11	16	29	9
16	MFK Bytca	16	3	0	13	14	45	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Humenne	STK Samorin
FC Tatran Presov	0-1 L	1-0 W
OFK Malzenice	2-2 D	5-3 W
Slovan Galanta	3-3 D	3-2 W
FC Vion Zlate Moravce	2-1 W	0-0 D
MFK Bytca	1-4 L	2-1 W
FK Pohronie	0-2 L	2-1 W
Inter Bratislava	1-1 D	2-2 D
FC Petrzalka	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: STK Samorin (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Humenne

LLDDLLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	FC Tatran Presov Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/10	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	2-2	12	6	D
24/10	Slovan Galanta Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	3-3	4	3	D
17/10	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
10/10	MFK Bytca Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	1-4	7	7	L
03/10	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
28/09	MSK Zilina B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/09	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	13	D
12/09	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
05/09	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L

STK Samorin

WWWWLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	2-2	5-3	5	3	W
31/10	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
24/10	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
17/10	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
11/10	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	10	D
05/10	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
26/09	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
19/09	FC Tatran Presov Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
12/09	Slovan Galanta Slovakia 2. Liga	2-2	3-2	6	8	W
05/09	MFK Bytca Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Humenne vs STK Samorin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an STK Samorin win (54%). Probabilities: FK Humenne 22%, draw 24%, STK Samorin 54%.

How many goals are expected in FK Humenne vs STK Samorin?

The model expects 3.1 goals (FK Humenne 1.18 · STK Samorin 1.92), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Humenne vs STK Samorin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.