Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 14/11, 13:00

Prediction: MSK Povazska Bystrica vs FK Pohronie

Team pages: MSK Povazska Bystrica · FK Pohronie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

MSK Povazska Bystrica1.75

FK Pohronie1.28

1X2

48% 25% 27%

MSK Povazska Bystrica Draw FK Pohronie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

MSK Povazska Bystrica 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWWL

FK Pohronie 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWDLDW

Head-to-head

MSK Povazska Bystrica 2–1–3 FK Pohronie (6 last)

FK Pohronie2-1MSK Povazska Bystrica
MSK Povazska Bystrica0-2FK Pohronie
MSK Povazska Bystrica1-1FK Pohronie
FK Pohronie4-0MSK Povazska Bystrica
MSK Povazska Bystrica3-1FK Pohronie
FK Pohronie1-2MSK Povazska Bystrica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MSK Povazska Bystrica 1496 · FK Pohronie 1560

	MSK Povazska Bystrica	Draw	FK Pohronie
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Pohronie (rating 1496 vs 1560).
H2H favours FK Pohronie: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MSK Povazska Bystrica	FK Pohronie
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	5.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.75

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +5’	1.85	3.75	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MSK Povazska Bystrica 2–1–3 FK Pohronie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Slovakia 2. Liga	FK Pohronie	2-1 HT 1-0	MSK Povazska Bystrica
19/06/26 Club Friendly List	MSK Povazska Bystrica	0-2 HT 0-2	FK Pohronie
08/05/26 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Povazska Bystrica	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Pohronie
24/10/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	FK Pohronie	4-0 HT 3-0	MSK Povazska Bystrica
09/05/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Povazska Bystrica	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Pohronie
25/10/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	FK Pohronie	1-2 HT 1-0	MSK Povazska Bystrica

Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	STK Samorin	16	11	3	2	32	19	36
2	FC Petrzalka	16	10	3	3	25	12	33
3	MSK Povazska Bystrica	16	9	2	5	30	27	29
4	FC Tatran Presov	16	8	4	4	25	19	28
5	FK Pohronie	16	8	3	5	28	20	27
6	Slovan Galanta	16	8	2	6	28	27	26
7	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	16	7	4	5	26	18	25
8	MSK Zilina B	16	7	3	6	22	20	24
9	Inter Bratislava	16	6	6	4	36	23	24
10	OFK Banik Lehota	16	6	4	6	23	27	22
11	Slovan Bratislava B	16	5	6	5	23	20	21
12	OFK Malzenice	16	4	4	8	24	28	16
13	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	16	3	5	8	14	20	14
14	FK Humenne	16	3	4	9	14	26	13
15	MFK Zvolen	16	2	3	11	16	29	9
16	MFK Bytca	16	3	0	13	14	45	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MSK Povazska Bystrica	FK Pohronie
Inter Bratislava	1-3 L	0-3 L
FC Petrzalka	1-0 W	0-1 L
FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	2-1 W	2-0 W
MFK Zvolen	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Humenne	2-1 W	2-0 W
OFK Banik Lehota	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Pohronie (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MSK Povazska Bystrica

WWLWWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-3	7	4	L
01/11	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
24/10	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
17/10	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
10/10	FC Tatran Presov Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Slovan Galanta Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	3-2	9	6	W
26/09	MFK Bytca Slovakia 2. Liga	2-0	4-1	9	1	W
20/09	MSK Zilina B Slovakia 2. Liga	2-3	2-4	10	1	L
12/09	FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/09	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	2-1	2-1	6	6	W

FK Pohronie

WWLLWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	2-1	5-1	5	7	W
30/10	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
24/10	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
16/10	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
12/10	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
03/10	FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
25/09	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
21/09	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
11/09	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
05/09	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MSK Povazska Bystrica vs FK Pohronie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MSK Povazska Bystrica win (48%). Probabilities: MSK Povazska Bystrica 48%, draw 25%, FK Pohronie 27%.

How many goals are expected in MSK Povazska Bystrica vs FK Pohronie?

The model expects 3.02 goals (MSK Povazska Bystrica 1.75 · FK Pohronie 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MSK Povazska Bystrica vs FK Pohronie?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.