Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 14/08, 19:00

Prediction: NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Krka

Team pages: NK Rudar Velenje · NK Krka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

NK Rudar Velenje1.47

NK Krka1.13

1X2

44% 27% 28%

NK Rudar Velenje Draw NK Krka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Rudar Velenje 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWWLDLL

NK Krka 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWWLLD

Head-to-head

NK Rudar Velenje 1–3–2 NK Krka (6 last)

NK Krka0-0NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje0-0NK Krka
NK Rudar Velenje0-0NK Krka
NK Krka3-0NK Rudar Velenje
NK Rudar Velenje0-5NK Krka
NK Krka4-5NK Rudar Velenje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Rudar Velenje 1490 · NK Krka 1481

	NK Rudar Velenje	Draw	NK Krka
Our model	44%	28%	28%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Krka: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Rudar Velenje	NK Krka
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:57 +25’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Rudar Velenje 1–3–2 NK Krka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Rudar Velenje
05/10/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krka
25/04/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-0 HT 0-0	NK Krka
13/10/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	3-0 HT 2-0	NK Rudar Velenje
19/05/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Rudar Velenje	0-5 HT 0-2	NK Krka
29/10/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	4-5 HT 1-2	NK Rudar Velenje

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jadran Dekani	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
1	Tabor Sezana	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	ND Beltinci	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	NK Bilje	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	NK Krsko	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
6	NK Triglav Kranj	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	NK Krka	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	NK Bistrica	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	NK Brezice	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	ND Dravinja	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	NK Vrhnika	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
14	NK Rudar Velenje	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	NK Jesenice	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
15	ND Slovan Ljubljana	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Rudar Velenje	NK Krka
Jadran Dekani	2-2 D	3-4 L
NK Jesenice	1-2 L	3-2 W
NK Krsko	3-0 W	4-0 W
ND Gorica	3-2 W	1-4 L
ND Dravinja	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Rudar Velenje (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Rudar Velenje

WDDDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
23/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
10/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
07/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
02/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	3-2	3	7	W
25/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-1	0	4	D
17/04	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
11/04	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
03/04	ND Slovan Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	4-0	2	6	W

NK Krka

LLWWLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
29/07	HNK Segesta Club Friendly List	0-2	1-4	5	1	L
22/07	NK Kustosija Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-4	3	2	L
18/07	NK Dubrava Zagreb Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/07	NK Krsko Club Friendly List	1-0	4-0	8	1	W
23/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
06/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	2	L
30/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Krka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Rudar Velenje win (44%). Probabilities: NK Rudar Velenje 44%, draw 27%, NK Krka 28%.

How many goals are expected in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Krka?

The model expects 2.6 goals (NK Rudar Velenje 1.47 · NK Krka 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Rudar Velenje vs NK Krka?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.