Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 08/08, 18:00

Prediction: NK Maribor vs FC Koper

Team pages: NK Maribor · FC Koper

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

NK Maribor1.57

FC Koper1.23

1X2

44% 26% 29%

NK Maribor Draw FC Koper

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Maribor 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Koper 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

NK Maribor 2–2–2 FC Koper (6 last)

FC Koper3-1NK Maribor
NK Maribor2-0FC Koper
FC Koper1-0NK Maribor
NK Maribor2-2FC Koper
FC Koper1-1NK Maribor
NK Maribor4-2FC Koper

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Maribor 1487 · FC Koper 1551

	NK Maribor	Draw	FC Koper
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Koper (rating 1487 vs 1551).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Maribor	FC Koper
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.8	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +39’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Maribor 2–2–2 FC Koper

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	3-1 HT 1-0	NK Maribor
08/02/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Koper
19/10/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	1-0 HT 1-0	NK Maribor
03/08/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Koper
18/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	FC Koper	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Maribor
16/03/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	4-2 HT 1-2	FC Koper

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Nafta 1903	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
2	NK Bravo	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
3	NK Maribor	3	1	2	0	4	1	5
4	FC Koper	3	1	2	0	5	3	5
5	NK Brinje Grosuplje	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
6	NS Mura	3	1	1	1	5	7	4
7	Olimpija Ljubljana	3	1	0	2	1	3	3
8	NK Celje	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
9	NK Aluminij	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
10	NK Radomlje	3	0	1	2	3	6	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Maribor	FC Koper
NK Brinje Grosuplje	3-0 W	1-1 D
NK Radomlje	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Maribor

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
25/07	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
19/07	NK Aluminij Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
10/07	Charlton Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
04/07	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Europe Friendlies	–	1-1	–	–	D
01/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
23/05	NK Aluminij Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
17/05	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	3	10	L
03/05	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	11	9	L
26/04	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	0-3	13	4	L

FC Koper

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	10	9	D
30/07	NSI Runavik UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-1	0-2	7	11	L
26/07	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
23/07	NSI Runavik UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
17/07	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/07	MTK Budapest Club Friendly List	0-1	3-1	4	2	W
08/07	Dinamo Zagreb Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-4	2	1	L
05/07	LNZ Lebedyn Club Friendly List	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
02/07	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
27/06	Vllaznia Shkoder Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-2	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Maribor vs FC Koper?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Maribor win (44%). Probabilities: NK Maribor 44%, draw 26%, FC Koper 29%.

How many goals are expected in NK Maribor vs FC Koper?

The model expects 2.8 goals (NK Maribor 1.57 · FC Koper 1.23), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Maribor vs FC Koper?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.