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Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 20/09, 17:30

Prediction: NS Mura vs NK Celje

Team pages: NS Mura · NK Celje

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.16Total
NS Mura1.25
NK Celje1.91
1X2
24% 24% 52%
NS Mura Draw NK Celje
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
NS Mura 2-2-6 (W-D-L)
LDWLLWLLDL
NK Celje 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
LWDDWWLWLL
Head-to-head
NS Mura 1–1–4 NK Celje (6 last)
  • NK Celje2-2NS Mura
  • NS Mura0-2NK Celje
  • NK Celje5-1NS Mura
  • NS Mura2-1NK Celje
  • NK Celje3-0NS Mura
  • NK Celje2-1NS Mura
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NS Mura 1419 · NK Celje 1536
NS MuraDrawNK Celje
Our model24%24%52%
Market24%24%52%
Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Celje (rating 1419 vs 1536).
  • H2H favours NK Celje: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

NS MuraNK Celje
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 2.41.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.6 / 10.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/20/50%30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)1.6 / 3.32.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.2 / 0.13.8 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · NS Mura 1–1–4 NK Celje

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DateHomeScoreAway
17/07/26
Slovenia Prva Liga
NK Celje2-2
HT 0-1
NS Mura
19/04/26
Slovenia Prva Liga
NS Mura0-2
HT 0-2
NK Celje
14/02/26
Slovenia Prva Liga
NK Celje5-1
HT 2-1
NS Mura
26/10/25
Slovenia Prva Liga
NS Mura2-1
HT 1-1
NK Celje
10/08/25
Slovenia Prva Liga
NK Celje3-0
HT 1-0
NS Mura
13/04/25
Slovenia Prva Liga
NK Celje2-1
HT 0-1
NS Mura

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 NK Maribor 9540 17619
2 NK Bravo 9432 10915
3 FC Koper 9432 9815
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 9423 9614
5 NK Nafta 1903 9414 171413
6 Aluminij Kidricevo 9333 14912
7 NK Celje 8323 111111
8 NS Mura 9225 10218
9 NK Brinje Grosuplje 9225 12178
10 NK Radomlje 8125 8165

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentNS MuraNK Celje
Aluminij Kidricevo 1-6 L 2-0 W
NK Maribor 1-1 D 1-1 D
NK Bravo 0-2 L 1-2 L
FC Koper 0-1 L 0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje 2-1 W 1-4 L
NK Nafta 1903 2-5 L 3-1 W
Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 W 1-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 4 L 3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Celje (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NS Mura

LDWLLWLLDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
13/09 Aluminij Kidricevo
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-3 1-6 56 L
06/09 NK Maribor
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-1 1-1 06 D
29/08 NK Bravo
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-1 0-2 66 L
22/08 FC Koper
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-0 0-1 55 L
16/08 NK Brinje Grosuplje
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-0 2-1 27 W
10/08 NK Radomlje
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-1 1-3 54 L
01/08 NK Nafta 1903
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-2 2-5 53 L
25/07 Olimpija Ljubljana
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-0 1-0 07 W
17/07 NK Celje
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-0 2-2 15 D
22/05 NK Radomlje
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-2 2-3 44 L

NK Celje

LWDDWWLWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
12/09 NK Bravo
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-0 1-2 63 L
06/09 FC Koper
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-1 0-1 58 L
02/09 Aluminij Kidricevo
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-0 2-0 144 W
30/08 NK Brinje Grosuplje
Slovenia Prva Liga
 1-1 1-4 63 L
15/08 NK Nafta 1903
Slovenia Prva Liga
 2-1 3-1 93 W
08/08 Olimpija Ljubljana
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-0 1-0 22 W
01/08 NK Maribor
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-1 1-1 41 D
17/07 NS Mura
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-1 2-2 55 D
22/05 NK Primorje Ajdovscina
Slovenia Prva Liga
 4-0 4-0 64 W
16/05 FC Koper
Slovenia Prva Liga
 0-1 1-2 35 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NS Mura vs NK Celje?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Celje win (52%). Probabilities: NS Mura 24%, draw 24%, NK Celje 52%.

How many goals are expected in NS Mura vs NK Celje?

The model expects 3.16 goals (NS Mura 1.25 · NK Celje 1.91), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NS Mura vs NK Celje?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.