Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: NK Bravo vs Olimpija Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Bravo · Olimpija Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

NK Bravo0.96

Olimpija Ljubljana1.41

1X2

25% 28% 47%

NK Bravo Draw Olimpija Ljubljana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Bravo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLWDW

Olimpija Ljubljana 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDWDWW

Head-to-head

NK Bravo 5–1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana (6 last)

Olimpija Ljubljana0-2NK Bravo
NK Bravo2-1Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana1-2NK Bravo
NK Bravo2-1Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana1-2NK Bravo
NK Bravo0-0Olimpija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Bravo 1549 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1485

	NK Bravo	Draw	Olimpija Ljubljana
Our model	24%	30%	46%
Market	26%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Bravo (rating 1549 vs 1485).
H2H favours NK Bravo: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Bravo	Olimpija Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.40

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.61
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.60 ★
2	2.00 → 1.90▼	Pinn 1.94

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +15’	3.20	3.30	2.00
03:32 +24’	3.50▲	3.40▲	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +316’	3.30	3.45	2.11
08:00 +16’	3.67▲	3.59▲	1.93▼
10:03 +9’	3.61▼	3.60▲	1.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Bravo 5–1–0 Olimpija Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	0-2 HT 0-1	NK Bravo
23/05/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	2-1 HT 0-1	Olimpija Ljubljana
21/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-2 HT 1-0	NK Bravo
07/12/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	2-1 HT 1-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
20/09/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-2 HT 1-2	NK Bravo
24/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Bravo	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	9	5	4	0	17	6	19
2	NK Bravo	9	4	3	2	10	9	15
3	FC Koper	9	4	3	2	9	8	15
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	9	4	2	3	9	6	14
5	NK Nafta 1903	9	4	1	4	17	14	13
6	Aluminij Kidricevo	9	3	3	3	14	9	12
7	NK Celje	8	3	2	3	11	11	11
8	NS Mura	9	2	2	5	10	21	8
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	9	2	2	5	12	17	8
10	NK Radomlje	8	1	2	5	8	16	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Bravo	Olimpija Ljubljana
NK Celje	2-1 W	0-1 L
NS Mura	2-0 W	0-1 L
NK Maribor	1-3 L	1-1 D
FC Koper	0-0 D	3-1 W
NK Brinje Grosuplje	1-1 D	3-0 W
NK Radomlje	2-1 W	0-0 D
NK Nafta 1903	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpija Ljubljana (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Bravo

WWLWDDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
05/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
29/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
23/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
16/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
09/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
02/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
26/07	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	10	5	L
18/07	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
23/05	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W

Olimpija Ljubljana

LLLWLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	3	8	W
05/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
29/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
21/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
08/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
02/08	NK Aluminij Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
25/07	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
18/07	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	12	3	L
23/05	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Bravo vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olimpija Ljubljana win (47%). Probabilities: NK Bravo 25%, draw 28%, Olimpija Ljubljana 47%.

How many goals are expected in NK Bravo vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

The model expects 2.36 goals (NK Bravo 0.96 · Olimpija Ljubljana 1.41), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Bravo vs Olimpija Ljubljana?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.