Football · Israel Leumit Liga · 09/10, 15:00

Prediction: Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula

Team pages: Ironi Modiin · Hapoel Afula

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Ironi Modiin1.3

Hapoel Afula1.4

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Ironi Modiin Draw Hapoel Afula

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ironi Modiin 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWDDLLLW

Hapoel Afula 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLDWD

Head-to-head

Ironi Modiin 1–2–0 Hapoel Afula (3 last)

Hapoel Afula0-0Ironi Modiin
Hapoel Afula0-0Ironi Modiin
Ironi Modiin3-1Hapoel Afula

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ironi Modiin 1484 · Hapoel Afula 1499

	Ironi Modiin	Draw	Hapoel Afula
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ironi Modiin	Hapoel Afula
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.85 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.32

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
09:14 +11’	2.60	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:58 +21’	2.87	3.20	2.33
10:24 +47’	2.86▼	3.19▼	2.33
15:05 +28’	2.85▼	3.22▲	2.32▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ironi Modiin 1–2–0 Hapoel Afula

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Israel Leumit Liga	Hapoel Afula	0-0 HT 0-0	Ironi Modiin
06/04/26 Israel Leumit Liga	Hapoel Afula	0-0 HT 0-0	Ironi Modiin
10/11/25 Israel Leumit Liga	Ironi Modiin	3-1 HT 2-0	Hapoel Afula

Standings · Israel Leumit Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MS Ashdod	8	7	0	1	18	6	21
2	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv	8	6	2	0	19	7	20
3	Hapoel Rishon Lezion	8	5	2	1	15	9	17
4	SC Kiryat Yam	8	5	0	3	23	13	15
5	Hapoel Raanana	8	5	0	3	19	11	15
6	Hapoel Afula	8	4	2	2	16	12	14
7	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	8	4	2	2	17	17	14
8	SC Kfar Qasim	8	4	1	3	12	8	13
9	Maccabi Bnei Raina	8	4	0	4	13	13	12
10	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	8	2	2	4	7	9	8
11	Ironi Modiin	8	2	2	4	12	15	8
12	Maccabi Herzliya	8	2	2	4	8	11	8
13	Maccabi Achi Nazareth	8	2	1	5	8	12	7
14	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	8	2	0	6	7	17	6
15	Hapoel Kfar Saba	8	2	0	6	9	20	6
16	Hapoel Akko	8	0	0	8	0	23	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ironi Modiin	Hapoel Afula
Maccabi Achi Nazareth	2-1 W	1-0 W
MS Ashdod	1-3 L	2-0 W
SC Kfar Qasim	0-0 D	2-0 W
Hapoel Raanana	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Afula (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ironi Modiin

WLLWDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	2-1	5	0	W
24/09	MS Ashdod Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
17/09	SC Kiryat Yam Israel Leumit Liga	1-2	2-3	6	4	L
10/09	Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv Israel Leumit Liga	0-3	2-4	3	5	L
07/09	SC Kfar Qasim Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
30/08	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
23/08	Hapoel Kfar Saba Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	4-1	1	6	W
18/08	Maccabi Herzliya Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
25/05	Hapoel Raanana Israel Leumit Liga	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
19/05	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Leumit Liga	2-0	2-0	2	6	W

Hapoel Afula

LWWWWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Hapoel Rishon Lezion Israel Leumit Liga	1-1	2-2	0	4	D
24/09	Hapoel Akko Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
17/09	Hapoel Kfar Shalem Israel Leumit Liga	1-2	3-3	3	5	D
10/09	Maccabi Bnei Raina Israel Leumit Liga	2-1	2-4	5	8	L
06/09	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Israel Leumit Liga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
31/08	Hapoel Raanana Israel Leumit Liga	3-0	3-2	3	7	W
24/08	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
18/08	MS Ashdod Israel Leumit Liga	1-0	2-0	0	6	W
25/05	SC Kfar Qasim Israel Leumit Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
19/05	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa Israel Leumit Liga	0-1	1-4	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Afula win (39%). Probabilities: Ironi Modiin 34%, draw 27%, Hapoel Afula 39%.

How many goals are expected in Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Ironi Modiin 1.3 · Hapoel Afula 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.