Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 11/09, 15:00

Prediction: Shurtan vs PFC Terdu

Team pages: Shurtan · PFC Terdu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Shurtan2.41

PFC Terdu0.55

1X2

79% 14% 7%

Shurtan Draw PFC Terdu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shurtan 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWLLW

PFC Terdu 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Shurtan 1–0 PFC Terdu (1 last)

PFC Terdu0-1Shurtan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shurtan 1524 · PFC Terdu 1366

	Shurtan	Draw	PFC Terdu
Our model	78%	16%	6%
Market	80%	12%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shurtan (rating 1524 vs 1366).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shurtan	PFC Terdu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.2 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/63/13%	20/0/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	2.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.50

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.95

2 (+2.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:38 +2’	1.17	7.50	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shurtan 1–0–0 PFC Terdu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	PFC Terdu	0-1 HT 0-0	Shurtan

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	18	13	4	1	35	11	43
2	Metallurg Bekabad	19	11	4	4	45	16	37
3	Shurtan	18	11	3	4	28	19	36
4	Fardu Ferghana	18	9	6	3	31	24	33
5	FC Lochin	18	9	5	4	26	18	32
6	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
7	Kattaqorgon	18	9	3	6	22	17	30
8	Gazalkent	18	8	4	6	32	22	28
9	Jayxun	18	6	3	9	20	24	21
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	18	6	3	9	21	32	21
11	Respublika FA	16	4	4	8	18	25	16
12	BuxDu	17	3	1	13	14	41	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	18	3	1	14	13	40	10
14	PFC Terdu	18	1	1	16	11	41	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shurtan	PFC Terdu
FC Yaypan Fergana	4-1 W	1-2 L
FC Lochin	0-1 L	1-2 L
Fardu Ferghana	1-3 L	1-5 L
Kattaqorgon	1-0 W	0-2 L
Olympic Mobiuz	0-0 D	0-3 L
BuxDu	4-2 W	0-2 L
Respublika FA	2-1 W	2-4 L
Metallurg Bekabad	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Shurtan (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shurtan

WLLWWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	6	8	W
29/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	3	2	L
15/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	15	2	D
05/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-2	5	3	W
30/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
24/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
10/06	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
04/06	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

PFC Terdu

LLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
20/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
04/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-5	2	4	L
30/07	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
10/06	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
04/06	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	2-4	3	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shurtan vs PFC Terdu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shurtan win (79%). Probabilities: Shurtan 79%, draw 14%, PFC Terdu 7%.

How many goals are expected in Shurtan vs PFC Terdu?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Shurtan 2.41 · PFC Terdu 0.55), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shurtan vs PFC Terdu?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.