Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 21/09, 13:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent II · Shurtan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent II0.88

Shurtan1.91

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Draw Shurtan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Shurtan 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–1 Shurtan (1 last)

Shurtan2-0Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1423 · Shurtan 1528

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Draw	Shurtan
Our model	16%	24%	61%
Market	17%	21%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shurtan (rating 1423 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Shurtan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.3	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.33

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 6.30 ★
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.41
2	1.45 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +25’	5.25	4.20	1.45
06:55 +5’	4.50▼	4.10▼	1.53▲
07:57 +4’	5.25▲	4.33▲	1.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:15 +45’	5.88	4.21	1.39
11:44 +17’	6.30▲	4.41▲	1.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–0–1 Shurtan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	2-0 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	20	15	4	1	42	13	49
2	Shurtan	20	13	3	4	35	19	42
3	Metallurg Bekabad	20	12	4	4	46	16	40
4	Fardu Ferghana	19	10	6	3	34	26	36
5	Kattaqorgon	19	10	3	6	24	17	33
6	FC Lochin	20	9	5	6	26	23	32
7	Olympic Mobiuz	18	9	4	5	34	20	31
8	Gazalkent	19	8	5	6	32	22	29
9	Jayxun	20	7	3	10	22	25	24
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	20	6	4	10	23	37	22
11	Respublika FA	19	6	4	9	25	29	22
12	BuxDu	19	3	1	15	15	45	10
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	20	3	1	16	13	46	10
14	PFC Terdu	19	1	1	17	11	44	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Shurtan
PFC Terdu	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-2 L	4-1 W
FC Lochin	2-1 W	0-1 L
Fardu Ferghana	1-5 L	1-3 L
Kattaqorgon	0-2 L	1-0 W
Olympic Mobiuz	1-4 L	0-0 D
BuxDu	0-2 L	4-2 W
Respublika FA	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shurtan (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
07/09	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	4	1	L
28/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	0	0	L
15/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
09/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-5	4	4	L
04/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
30/07	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-4	5	3	L
24/07	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
08/06	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-3	4	3	L

Shurtan

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
06/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	6	8	W
29/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	3	2	L
15/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
10/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	15	2	D
05/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-2	5	3	W
30/07	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
24/07	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-3	2	8	L
10/06	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shurtan win (62%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent II 16%, draw 22%, Shurtan 62%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0.88 · Shurtan 1.91), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs Shurtan?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.