Prediction: Island Bay United vs Miramar Rangers
Expected goals: 3.4 (Island Bay United 1.01 · Miramar Rangers 2.39). The model gives 14% home, 18% draw, 68% away. Under 3.75 goals (57%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-2.
On recent form, Island Bay United is 3-1-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Miramar Rangers 8-1-1 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 0 wins for Island Bay United and 6 for Miramar Rangers.
| Island Bay United | Draw | Miramar Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 19% | 67% |
| Market | 15% | 16% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Miramar Rangers (rating 1450 vs 1629).
- H2H favours Miramar Rangers: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Island Bay United | Miramar Rangers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.3 | 2.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 3.8 | 3.5 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Island Bay United 0–0–6 Miramar Rangers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Island Bay United |
| 04/04/26 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Miramar Rangers |
| 02/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Miramar Rangers |
| 03/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Island Bay United |
| 22/06/24 New Zealand Central League | Miramar Rangers | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Island Bay United |
| 06/04/24 New Zealand Central League | Island Bay United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Miramar Rangers |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Island Bay United | Miramar Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Napier City Rovers | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Waterside Karori | 0-4 L | 6-0 W |
| Petone FC | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Upper Hutt City | 4-1 W | 3-2 W |
| FC Western | 5-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Miramar Rangers (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Island Bay United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 03/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Cup |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
5-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
Miramar Rangers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Island Bay United vs Miramar Rangers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Miramar Rangers win (68%). Probabilities: Island Bay United 14%, draw 18%, Miramar Rangers 68%.
How many goals are expected in Island Bay United vs Miramar Rangers?
The model expects 3.4 goals (Island Bay United 1.01 · Miramar Rangers 2.39), with a 57% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Island Bay United vs Miramar Rangers?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.