Prediction: Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC
Expected goals: 3.29 (Nelson Suburbs 1.99 · Northern AFC 1.31). The model gives 52% home, 24% draw, 24% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Nelson Suburbs sits at 6-0-4 (W-D-L), while Northern AFC arrives on a 4-2-4 run. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Nelson Suburbs and 1 for Northern AFC.
| Nelson Suburbs | Draw | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nelson Suburbs (rating 1549 vs 1499).
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nelson Suburbs | Northern AFC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 2 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 8.5 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nelson Suburbs 0–0–1 Northern AFC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 New Zealand Southern League | Northern AFC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Nelson Suburbs |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nelson Suburbs | Northern AFC |
|---|---|---|
| Dunedin City Royals FC | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Wanaka AFC | 6-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Nomads United | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Coastal Spirit | 5-3 W | 1-2 L |
| Ferrymead Bays | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Christchurch United | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Cashmere Technical | 0-6 L | 0-6 L |
| Selwyn United | 6-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Nelson Suburbs (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nelson Suburbs
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 20/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
1-0 | 6-0 | 17 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
4-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
2-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 27/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Northern AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
Northern AFC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Ferrymead Bays New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Nomads United New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/06 | Coastal Spirit New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Wanaka AFC New Zealand Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Selwyn United New Zealand Southern League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Dunedin City Royals FC New Zealand Southern League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/04 | Christchurch United New Zealand Southern League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Cashmere Technical New Zealand Southern League |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Nelson Suburbs New Zealand Southern League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nelson Suburbs win (52%). Probabilities: Nelson Suburbs 52%, draw 24%, Northern AFC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Nelson Suburbs 1.99 · Northern AFC 1.31), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nelson Suburbs vs Northern AFC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.