Prediction: Petone FC vs Napier City Rovers
Expected goals: 3.14 (Petone FC 0.99 · Napier City Rovers 2.15). The model gives 16% home, 21% draw, 63% away. Under 3.5 goals (57%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Petone FC with 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses over 10 games; Napier City Rovers has piled up 7-2-1 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Petone FC won 1 and Napier City Rovers 4, with 1 draw.
| Petone FC | Draw | Napier City Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Napier City Rovers (rating 1455 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Napier City Rovers: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Petone FC | Napier City Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.8 | 3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Petone FC 1–1–4 Napier City Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Napier City Rovers |
| 24/08/25 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 5-1 HT 4-0 | Petone FC |
| 17/05/25 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Napier City Rovers |
| 10/08/24 New Zealand Central League | Petone FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Napier City Rovers |
| 12/05/24 New Zealand Central League | Napier City Rovers | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Petone FC |
| 24/09/23 New Zealand Football Championship | Napier City Rovers | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Petone FC |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Petone FC | Napier City Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix Reserves | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| FC Western | 2-1 W | 6-1 W |
| Island Bay United | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Wellington Olympic | 1-5 L | 3-2 W |
| Western Suburbs | 0-1 L | 3-3 D |
| Miramar Rangers | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Waterside Karori | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Napier City Rovers (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Petone FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 06/06 | Upper Hutt City New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Napier City Rovers New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
Napier City Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Wellington Olympic New Zealand Central League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Western Suburbs New Zealand Central League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Cup |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 30/05 | Island Bay United New Zealand Central League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Western New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Miramar Rangers New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Waterside Karori New Zealand Central League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Petone FC New Zealand Central League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Wellington Phoenix Reserves New Zealand Central League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Petone FC vs Napier City Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Napier City Rovers win (63%). Probabilities: Petone FC 16%, draw 21%, Napier City Rovers 63%.
How many goals are expected in Petone FC vs Napier City Rovers?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Petone FC 0.99 · Napier City Rovers 2.15), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Petone FC vs Napier City Rovers?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.