Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Wil 1900 vs Winterthur

Team pages: Wil 1900 · Winterthur

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Wil 19001.47

Winterthur1.91

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Wil 1900 Draw Winterthur

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wil 1900 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDDLWDD

Winterthur 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Wil 1900 0–3–3 Winterthur (6 last)

Winterthur5-0Wil 1900
Winterthur2-2Wil 1900
Wil 19001-1Winterthur
Wil 19001-1Winterthur
Winterthur4-0Wil 1900
Wil 19003-5Winterthur

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wil 1900 1498 · Winterthur 1539

	Wil 1900	Draw	Winterthur
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Winterthur (rating 1498 vs 1539).
H2H favours Winterthur: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wil 1900	Winterthur
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.80

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.36 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.85
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:07 +10’	3.20	3.80	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +546’	3.36	3.85	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Wil 1900 0–3–3 Winterthur

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Switzerland Challenge League	Winterthur	5-0 HT 3-0	Wil 1900
10/10/24 Europe Friendlies	Winterthur	2-2 HT 1-0	Wil 1900
14/09/24 Switzerland Cup	Wil 1900	1-1 HT 0-1	Winterthur
09/05/22 Switzerland Challenge League	Wil 1900	1-1 HT 1-0	Winterthur
12/02/22 Switzerland Challenge League	Winterthur	4-0 HT 0-0	Wil 1900
11/12/21 Switzerland Challenge League	Wil 1900	3-5 HT 2-2	Winterthur

Standings · Switzerland Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	11	7	4	0	20	3	25
2	Yverdon Sport FC	11	6	4	1	21	11	22
3	Winterthur	11	6	3	2	23	11	21
4	Neuchatel Xamax	11	5	1	5	15	17	16
5	Kriens	11	4	3	4	19	17	15
6	Aarau	11	3	3	5	16	20	12
7	Etoile Carouge	11	3	3	5	10	15	12
8	FC Rapperswil-Jona	11	3	2	6	17	21	11
9	Wil 1900	11	2	5	4	18	24	11
10	Stade Nyonnais	11	1	2	8	8	28	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wil 1900	Winterthur
FC Rapperswil-Jona	2-2 D	2-0 W
Kriens	1-1 D	0-2 L
Stade Nyonnais	5-0 W	4-0 W
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	0-4 L	1-1 D
Etoile Carouge	1-1 D	1-0 W
Aarau	2-2 D	2-1 W
Neuchatel Xamax	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Winterthur (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wil 1900

LLLDDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
09/10	Kriens Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
18/09	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
11/09	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	0-4	6	5	L
04/09	Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
31/08	Aarau Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
28/08	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Kriens Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
07/08	Winterthur Switzerland Challenge League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
31/07	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L

Winterthur

LWWDDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
09/10	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
18/09	Aarau Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
11/09	Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
04/09	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
01/09	Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League	2-1	2-2	3	7	D
28/08	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
21/08	FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
07/08	Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League	3-0	5-0	6	3	W
31/07	Kriens Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wil 1900 vs Winterthur?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Winterthur win (47%). Probabilities: Wil 1900 29%, draw 24%, Winterthur 47%.

How many goals are expected in Wil 1900 vs Winterthur?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Wil 1900 1.47 · Winterthur 1.91), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wil 1900 vs Winterthur?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.