Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 07/11, 18:00
Prediction: Winterthur vs Etoile Carouge
Team pages: Winterthur · Etoile Carouge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.36Total
Winterthur2.23
Etoile Carouge1.13
1X2
Winterthur
Draw
Etoile Carouge
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Winterthur
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Etoile Carouge
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Winterthur
1–1
Etoile Carouge
(2 last)
- Etoile Carouge0-1Winterthur
- Etoile Carouge3-1Winterthur
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Winterthur (rating 1564 vs 1453).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Winterthur | Etoile Carouge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 3.4 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Winterthur 1–0–1 Etoile Carouge
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Winterthur |
| 18/09/21 Switzerland Cup | Etoile Carouge | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Winterthur |
Standings · Switzerland Challenge League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 28 |
| 2 | Winterthur | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 22 |
| 4 | Kriens | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 16 |
| 5 | Neuchatel Xamax | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 6 | Aarau | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 15 |
| 7 | Etoile Carouge | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Rapperswil-Jona | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 25 | 11 |
| 9 | Wil 1900 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 27 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Winterthur | Etoile Carouge |
|---|---|---|
| Wil 1900 | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Stade Nyonnais | 4-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Neuchatel Xamax | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Aarau | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| FC Rapperswil-Jona | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Winterthur (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Winterthur
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/10 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/10 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/09 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/09 | Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 28/08 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Etoile Carouge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Kriens Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/10 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/10 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/09 | Kriens Switzerland Challenge League |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/09 | Winterthur Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 04/09 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 01/09 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 28/08 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/08 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | D |
| 07/08 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Winterthur vs Etoile Carouge?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Winterthur win (61%). Probabilities: Winterthur 61%, draw 21%, Etoile Carouge 17%.
How many goals are expected in Winterthur vs Etoile Carouge?
The model expects 3.36 goals (Winterthur 2.23 · Etoile Carouge 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Winterthur vs Etoile Carouge?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.