Prediction: Basel vs Lugano
- Lugano4-0Basel
- Basel1-1Lugano
- Basel0-1Lugano
- Lugano3-1Basel
- Lugano2-5Basel
- Basel2-0Lugano
| Basel | Draw | Lugano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 43% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugano (rating 1487 vs 1641).
- H2H favours Lugano: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Basel | Lugano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2 | 2.3 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Basel 2–1–3 Lugano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Basel |
| 15/02/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lugano |
| 09/11/25 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lugano |
| 10/08/25 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Basel |
| 10/05/25 Switzerland Super League | Lugano | 2-5 HT 1-1 | Basel |
| 06/04/25 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lugano |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Young Boys | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 9 | 11 |
| 3 | Basel | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | St Gallen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Sion | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 6 | FC Thun | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Zurich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 6 |
| 8 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| 9 | Lucerne | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 10 | Servette | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 3 |
| 12 | Grasshoppers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Basel | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| Young Boys | 3-3 D | 1-0 W |
| FC Zurich | 2-1 W | 5-0 W |
| FC Thun | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| St Gallen | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Sion | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Lugano (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Basel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 10/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Lugano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Basel Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Basel vs Lugano?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Lugano win (43%). Probabilities: Basel 32%, draw 26%, Lugano 43%.
How many goals are expected in Basel vs Lugano?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Basel 1.38 · Lugano 1.63), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Basel vs Lugano?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.