Football · Japan J2-League · 21/10, 12:00
Prediction: Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu
Team pages: Albirex Niigata · Sagan Tosu
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
Albirex Niigata1.63
Sagan Tosu0.93
1X2
Albirex Niigata
Draw
Sagan Tosu
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Albirex Niigata
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Sagan Tosu
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Albirex Niigata
2–1–3
Sagan Tosu
(6 last)
- Albirex Niigata3-4Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu1-2Albirex Niigata
- Albirex Niigata1-1Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu2-0Albirex Niigata
- Albirex Niigata1-0Sagan Tosu
- Sagan Tosu3-0Albirex Niigata
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Albirex Niigata (rating 1532 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Sagan Tosu: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Albirex Niigata | Sagan Tosu | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 2.9 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 1.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Albirex Niigata 2–1–3 Sagan Tosu
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/24 Japan J-League | Albirex Niigata | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Sagan Tosu |
| 24/02/24 Japan J-League | Sagan Tosu | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Albirex Niigata |
| 21/10/23 Japan J-League | Albirex Niigata | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sagan Tosu |
| 20/05/23 Japan J-League | Sagan Tosu | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Albirex Niigata |
| 29/10/17 Japan J-League | Albirex Niigata | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sagan Tosu |
| 08/04/17 Japan J-League | Sagan Tosu | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Albirex Niigata |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Omiya Ardija | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 20 |
| 3 | Albirex Niigata | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Kataller Toyama | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 19 |
| 5 | Yokohama FC | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 18 |
| 6 | Shonan Bellmare | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 18 |
| 7 | Oita | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 9 | 17 |
| 8 | Fujieda MYFC | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| 10 | Jubilo Iwata | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | 14 |
| 11 | Sagan Tosu | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| 12 | Tokushima Vortis | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| 13 | Montedio Yamagata | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 14 | Blaublitz Akita | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 15 | Iwaki FC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| 16 | Tochigi City | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 17 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 18 | FC Imabari | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 11 |
| 19 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Albirex Niigata | Sagan Tosu |
|---|---|---|
| Tokushima Vortis | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Blaublitz Akita | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Montedio Yamagata | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Yokohama FC | 0-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Iwaki FC | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Fujieda MYFC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Albirex Niigata (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Albirex Niigata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Oita Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/10 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 26/09 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 06/09 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
Sagan Tosu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 04/10 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/09 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 16/08 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Albirex Niigata win (52%). Probabilities: Albirex Niigata 52%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 20%.
How many goals are expected in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
The model expects 2.56 goals (Albirex Niigata 1.63 · Sagan Tosu 0.93), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Albirex Niigata vs Sagan Tosu?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.