Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 19/08, 17:00

Prediction: FK Graficar Beograd vs Loznica

Team pages: FK Graficar Beograd · Loznica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.95Total

FK Graficar Beograd1.18

Loznica0.76

1X2

45% 31% 23%

FK Graficar Beograd Draw Loznica

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Graficar Beograd 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWLLLW

Loznica 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWDDL

Head-to-head

FK Graficar Beograd 2–4 Loznica (6 last)

Loznica1-0FK Graficar Beograd
FK Graficar Beograd1-2Loznica
Loznica2-1FK Graficar Beograd
FK Graficar Beograd5-1Loznica
FK Graficar Beograd2-1Loznica
Loznica2-0FK Graficar Beograd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Graficar Beograd 1480 · Loznica 1560

	FK Graficar Beograd	Draw	Loznica
Our model	45%	33%	22%
Market	46%	30%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.95 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Loznica (rating 1480 vs 1560).
H2H favours Loznica: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Graficar Beograd	Loznica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.00

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +2’	1.95	3.00	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Graficar Beograd 2–0–4 Loznica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Serbia Prva Liga	Loznica	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Graficar Beograd
25/09/25 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	1-2 HT 1-1	Loznica
05/11/22 Serbia Prva Liga	Loznica	2-1 HT 2-1	FK Graficar Beograd
06/08/22 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	5-1 HT 2-0	Loznica
16/12/21 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Graficar Beograd	2-1 HT 1-0	Loznica
27/11/21 Serbia Prva Liga	Loznica	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Graficar Beograd

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Smederevo	3	3	0	0	9	4	9
2	FK Napredak	3	3	0	0	4	1	9
3	FK Backa Topola	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
4	FK Dubocica	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Spartak Subotica	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
6	Borac Cacak	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	OFK Vrsac	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
8	Javor Ivanjica	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
9	Jedinstvo UB	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
10	FK Graficar Beograd	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	Metalac Gornji	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
12	Teleoptik	3	1	0	2	5	9	3
13	Loznica	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	FK Proleter 023	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
15	FK Vozdovac	3	0	0	3	0	3	0
16	Bor 1919	3	0	0	3	1	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Graficar Beograd	Loznica
FK Vozdovac	1-0 W	2-0 W
Borac Cacak	0-3 L	2-3 L
OFK Vrsac	1-0 W	0-0 D
FK Dubocica	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Graficar Beograd

WWWLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
09/08	Smederevo Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	5	8	L
02/08	FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
25/07	Borac Cacak Club Friendly List	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
18/07	OFK Vrsac Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/07	Metalac Gornji Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
29/05	FK FAP Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
24/05	FK Trayal Krusevac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
17/05	FK Kabel Novi Sad Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
11/05	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	1-1	3-1	3	7	W

Loznica

LWDWWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
08/08	FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
31/07	FK Proleter 023 Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/07	Radnicki Obrenovac Club Friendly List	1-0	3-1	3	2	W
09/05	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	FK Zemun Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
25/04	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/04	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
05/04	Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Graficar Beograd vs Loznica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Graficar Beograd win (45%). Probabilities: FK Graficar Beograd 45%, draw 31%, Loznica 23%.

How many goals are expected in FK Graficar Beograd vs Loznica?

The model expects 1.95 goals (FK Graficar Beograd 1.18 · Loznica 0.76), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Graficar Beograd vs Loznica?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.