Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 19/08, 19:00
Prediction: Metalac Gornji vs Smederevo
Team pages: Metalac Gornji · Smederevo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Metalac Gornji1.18
Smederevo1.31
1X2
Metalac Gornji
Draw
Smederevo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Metalac Gornji
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Smederevo
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Metalac Gornji
3–1–2
Smederevo
(6 last)
- Metalac Gornji0-0Smederevo
- Smederevo2-1Metalac Gornji
- Smederevo0-1Metalac Gornji
- Metalac Gornji0-1Smederevo
- Smederevo2-3Metalac Gornji
- Metalac Gornji1-0Smederevo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Metalac Gornji 1509 · Smederevo 1576
| Metalac Gornji | Draw | Smederevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market | 32% | 30% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Smederevo (rating 1509 vs 1576).
- H2H favours Metalac Gornji: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Metalac Gornji | Smederevo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 2.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 56/22/22% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5 | 2.5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Metalac Gornji 3–1–2 Smederevo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/24 Serbia Prva Liga | Metalac Gornji | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Smederevo |
| 09/09/23 Serbia Prva Liga | Smederevo | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Metalac Gornji |
| 30/11/19 Serbia Prva Liga | Smederevo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Metalac Gornji |
| 04/09/19 Serbia Prva Liga | Metalac Gornji | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Smederevo |
| 07/07/18 Europe Friendlies | Smederevo | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Metalac Gornji |
| 10/05/14 Serbia Prva Liga | Metalac Gornji | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Smederevo |
Standings · Serbia Prva Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Smederevo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | FK Napredak | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | FK Backa Topola | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | FK Dubocica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Spartak Subotica | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Borac Cacak | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | OFK Vrsac | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Javor Ivanjica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Jedinstvo UB | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | FK Graficar Beograd | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Metalac Gornji | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Teleoptik | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 13 | Loznica | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | FK Proleter 023 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | FK Vozdovac | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Bor 1919 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Metalac Gornji
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | FK Napredak Serbia Prva Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Spartak Subotica Serbia Prva Liga |
0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 24/07 | Javor Ivanjica Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 15/07 | FK Graficar Beograd Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | FK Radnicki Valjevo Serbia Srpska Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | FK Napredak Markovac Serbia Srpska Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | FK Zlatibor Serbia Srpska Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Sumadija Kragujevac Serbia Srpska Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | FK Omladinac Zablace Serbia Srpska Liga |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Smederevo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga |
4-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | FK Graficar Beograd Serbia Prva Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 01/08 | Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/07 | FK Sloboda Donji Tovarnik Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/07 | OFK Mladost DG Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 4-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | FK Trayal Krusevac Serbia Prva Liga |
5-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | FK Kabel Novi Sad Serbia Prva Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/05 | Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 07/05 | FK Tekstilac Odzaci Serbia Prva Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Metalac Gornji vs Smederevo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Smederevo win (38%). Probabilities: Metalac Gornji 32%, draw 30%, Smederevo 38%.
How many goals are expected in Metalac Gornji vs Smederevo?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Metalac Gornji 1.18 · Smederevo 1.31), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Metalac Gornji vs Smederevo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.