Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 19/08, 21:00

Prediction: FK Backa Topola vs Spartak Subotica

Team pages: FK Backa Topola · Spartak Subotica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

FK Backa Topola2.29

Spartak Subotica1.34

1X2

57% 23% 20%

FK Backa Topola Draw Spartak Subotica

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Backa Topola 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDLWWDW

Spartak Subotica 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDWWL

Head-to-head

FK Backa Topola 4–2–0 Spartak Subotica (6 last)

Spartak Subotica1-4FK Backa Topola
Spartak Subotica1-2FK Backa Topola
FK Backa Topola2-0Spartak Subotica
FK Backa Topola2-1Spartak Subotica
Spartak Subotica0-0FK Backa Topola
FK Backa Topola0-0Spartak Subotica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Backa Topola 1540 · Spartak Subotica 1438

	FK Backa Topola	Draw	Spartak Subotica
Our model	58%	21%	21%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Backa Topola (rating 1540 vs 1438).
H2H favours FK Backa Topola: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Backa Topola	Spartak Subotica
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 7	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +11’	1.60	3.60	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Backa Topola 4–2–0 Spartak Subotica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	Spartak Subotica	1-4 HT 1-1	FK Backa Topola
08/12/25 Serbia Super Liga	Spartak Subotica	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Backa Topola
02/08/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Backa Topola	2-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Subotica
12/03/25 Serbia Cup	FK Backa Topola	2-1 HT 0-1	Spartak Subotica
08/12/24 Serbia Super Liga	Spartak Subotica	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Backa Topola
04/08/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Backa Topola	0-0 HT 0-0	Spartak Subotica

Standings · Serbia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Smederevo	3	3	0	0	9	4	9
2	FK Napredak	3	3	0	0	4	1	9
3	FK Backa Topola	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
4	FK Dubocica	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Spartak Subotica	3	2	0	1	9	6	6
6	Borac Cacak	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	OFK Vrsac	3	2	0	1	3	2	6
8	Javor Ivanjica	3	1	1	1	7	4	4
9	Jedinstvo UB	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
10	FK Graficar Beograd	3	1	0	2	2	3	3
11	Metalac Gornji	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
12	Teleoptik	3	1	0	2	5	9	3
13	Loznica	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
14	FK Proleter 023	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
15	FK Vozdovac	3	0	0	3	0	3	0
16	Bor 1919	3	0	0	3	1	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Backa Topola	Spartak Subotica
OFK Vrsac	1-0 W	2-2 D
IMT Novi Belgrade	1-1 D	0-1 L
Radnicki Nis	1-2 L	1-2 L
FK Radnicki 1923	2-2 D	0-4 L
Mladost Lucani	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Backa Topola (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Backa Topola

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Jedinstvo UB Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
09/08	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	7	10	D
01/08	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	12	6	W
22/07	ND Ilirija Ljubljana Club Friendly List	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
27/06	Dunajska Streda Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
16/05	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
10/05	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Super Liga	4-1	6-1	4	3	W
03/05	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
27/04	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	11	5	L

Spartak Subotica

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Teleoptik Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
08/08	Metalac Gornji Serbia Prva Liga	2-0	4-2	3	4	W
01/08	Bor 1919 Serbia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
25/07	OFK Vrsac Club Friendly List	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
16/05	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
10/05	FK Napredak Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
03/05	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
27/04	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-4	5	7	L
23/04	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-4	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Backa Topola vs Spartak Subotica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Backa Topola win (57%). Probabilities: FK Backa Topola 57%, draw 23%, Spartak Subotica 20%.

How many goals are expected in FK Backa Topola vs Spartak Subotica?

The model expects 3.63 goals (FK Backa Topola 2.29 · Spartak Subotica 1.34), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Backa Topola vs Spartak Subotica?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.