Football · Serbia Prva Liga · 02/08, 19:00
Prediction: FK Napredak vs FK Graficar Beograd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
FK Napredak1.42
FK Graficar Beograd0.56
1X2
FK Napredak
Draw
FK Graficar Beograd
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
FK Napredak
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
FK Graficar Beograd
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Napredak 1443 · FK Graficar Beograd 1471
| FK Napredak | Draw | FK Graficar Beograd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 29% | 14% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Napredak | FK Graficar Beograd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.1 | 1.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.8 / 0 |
Standings · Serbia Prva Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loznica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | FK Proleter 023 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Bor 1919 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Javor Ivanjica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Jedinstvo UB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Metalac Gornji | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | FK Napredak | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Smederevo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Spartak Subotica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Teleoptik | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | FK Backa Topola | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | FK Vozdovac | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | FK Dubocica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | OFK Vrsac | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | FK Graficar Beograd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Napredak
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | FK Dubocica Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/07 | FK Sloga Doboj Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 11/07 | Radnik Bijeljina Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Javor Ivanjica Serbia Super Liga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 23/04 | IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
FK Graficar Beograd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Borac Cacak Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | OFK Vrsac Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/07 | Metalac Gornji Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | FK FAP Serbia Prva Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | FK Trayal Krusevac Serbia Prva Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | FK Kabel Novi Sad Serbia Prva Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | FK Dubocica Serbia Prva Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 07/05 | Borac Cacak Serbia Prva Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | FK Tekstilac Odzaci Serbia Prva Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | Vojvodina Serbia Cup |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Napredak vs FK Graficar Beograd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Napredak win (59%). Probabilities: FK Napredak 59%, draw 26%, FK Graficar Beograd 15%.
How many goals are expected in FK Napredak vs FK Graficar Beograd?
The model expects 1.98 goals (FK Napredak 1.42 · FK Graficar Beograd 0.56), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Napredak vs FK Graficar Beograd?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.