Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: Almere City FC vs Roda JC

Team pages: Almere City FC · Roda JC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Almere City FC1.53

Roda JC1

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Almere City FC Draw Roda JC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City FC 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Roda JC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Almere City FC 3–3 Roda JC (6 last)

Almere City FC1-2Roda JC
Roda JC2-0Almere City FC
Roda JC0-2Almere City FC
Almere City FC2-1Roda JC
Almere City FC0-4Roda JC
Roda JC3-4Almere City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City FC 1536 · Roda JC 1553

	Almere City FC	Draw	Roda JC
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City FC	Roda JC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.8	1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +9’	1.83	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City FC 3–0–3 Roda JC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Roda JC
20/10/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	2-0 HT 0-0	Almere City FC
24/02/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	0-2 HT 0-1	Almere City FC
30/09/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Roda JC
14/01/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Almere City FC	0-4 HT 0-3	Roda JC
27/08/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Roda JC	3-4 HT 1-2	Almere City FC

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36	13	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23	18	16
9	Maastricht	11	5	1	5	14	25	16
10	RKC	11	3	6	2	20	16	15
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City FC	Roda JC
FC Emmen	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Dordrecht	2-3 L	1-0 W
Maastricht	4-0 W	1-1 D
Ajax Reserves	0-1 L	0-0 D
Vitesse	3-0 W	1-0 W
PSV Reserves	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Almere City FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
09/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
03/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
18/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
11/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
04/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
29/08	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	4-1	5	2	W
21/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
14/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-1	3	2	W

Roda JC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
04/10	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
26/09	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
18/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
12/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
06/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
28/08	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
21/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
07/08	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City FC vs Roda JC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almere City FC win (49%). Probabilities: Almere City FC 49%, draw 26%, Roda JC 25%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City FC vs Roda JC?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Almere City FC 1.53 · Roda JC 1), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Roda JC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.