Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: De Graafschap vs RKC

Team pages: De Graafschap · RKC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

De Graafschap1.86

RKC1.74

1X2

40% 24% 35%

De Graafschap Draw RKC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

De Graafschap 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLWLWDW

RKC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWLDLD

Head-to-head

De Graafschap 3–1–2 RKC (6 last)

De Graafschap2-4RKC
RKC1-4De Graafschap
De Graafschap1-0RKC
RKC0-0De Graafschap
De Graafschap4-0RKC
RKC2-1De Graafschap

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · De Graafschap 1481 · RKC 1515

	De Graafschap	Draw	RKC
Our model	41%	24%	36%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours De Graafschap: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	De Graafschap	RKC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.3	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +3’	2.30	3.75	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · De Graafschap 3–1–2 RKC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/01/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	2-4 HT 0-1	RKC
09/11/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	1-4 HT 0-3	De Graafschap
30/03/18 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	1-0 HT 0-0	RKC
02/09/17 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	0-0 HT 0-0	De Graafschap
07/04/17 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	De Graafschap	4-0 HT 3-0	RKC
25/11/16 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	RKC	2-1 HT 2-1	De Graafschap

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36	13	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23	18	16
9	Maastricht	11	5	1	5	14	25	16
10	RKC	11	3	6	2	20	16	15
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	De Graafschap	RKC
NAC	1-2 L	4-2 W
FC Emmen	2-1 W	1-1 D
Heracles	0-5 L	0-3 L
Helmond Sport	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: RKC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

De Graafschap

DLLLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
03/10	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
27/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	2	4	L
11/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
04/09	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-5	1	4	L
29/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-4	9	2	L
23/08	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
17/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-5	5	7	L
09/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

RKC

DDDWWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	14	3	D
09/10	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-3	5	4	L
03/10	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
26/09	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
18/09	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	6	2	W
11/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
04/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-2	3	5	W
28/08	PSV Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-1	2-2	2	2	D
21/08	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in De Graafschap vs RKC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a De Graafschap win (40%). Probabilities: De Graafschap 40%, draw 24%, RKC 35%.

How many goals are expected in De Graafschap vs RKC?

The model expects 3.59 goals (De Graafschap 1.86 · RKC 1.74), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs RKC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.