Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: FC Eindhoven vs PSV Reserves

Team pages: FC Eindhoven · PSV Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

FC Eindhoven1.75

PSV Reserves1.63

1X2

40% 25% 35%

FC Eindhoven Draw PSV Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Eindhoven 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLDLL

PSV Reserves 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLDLD

Head-to-head

FC Eindhoven 5–1 PSV Reserves (6 last)

PSV Reserves1-2FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven4-0PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves0-2FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven1-0PSV Reserves
FC Eindhoven2-5PSV Reserves
PSV Reserves3-4FC Eindhoven

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Eindhoven 1462 · PSV Reserves 1471

	FC Eindhoven	Draw	PSV Reserves
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Eindhoven: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Eindhoven	PSV Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.4	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +3’	2.30	3.75	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Eindhoven 5–0–1 PSV Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	1-2 HT 1-0	FC Eindhoven
05/12/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	4-0 HT 4-0	PSV Reserves
28/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Eindhoven
29/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	1-0 HT 1-0	PSV Reserves
12/04/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Eindhoven	2-5 HT 0-2	PSV Reserves
23/10/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PSV Reserves	3-4 HT 1-1	FC Eindhoven

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36	13	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23	18	16
9	Maastricht	11	5	1	5	14	25	16
10	RKC	11	3	6	2	20	16	15
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Eindhoven	PSV Reserves
Vitesse	0-1 L	1-3 L
Almere City FC	0-3 L	1-3 L
FC Den Bosch	2-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PSV Reserves (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Eindhoven

LLLDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
09/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	3	L
03/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-2	8	6	D
26/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	2-4	2	3	L
18/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
11/09	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
07/09	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
30/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
21/08	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-3	2-5	1	1	L
14/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	2-3	6	1	L

PSV Reserves

WLWDDWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Roda JC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	0	D
19/09	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
14/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
11/09	Helmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
07/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
31/08	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
28/08	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
24/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
14/08	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	7	2	L
10/08	FC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	3-2	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Eindhoven vs PSV Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Eindhoven win (40%). Probabilities: FC Eindhoven 40%, draw 25%, PSV Reserves 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Eindhoven vs PSV Reserves?

The model expects 3.39 goals (FC Eindhoven 1.75 · PSV Reserves 1.63), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs PSV Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.