Football · Netherlands Eerste Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: FC Volendam vs FC Utrecht Reserves

Team pages: FC Volendam · FC Utrecht Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

FC Volendam2.36

FC Utrecht Reserves1.42

1X2

58% 21% 22%

FC Volendam Draw FC Utrecht Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Volendam 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht Reserves 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Volendam 5–1 FC Utrecht Reserves (6 last)

FC Utrecht Reserves2-3FC Volendam
FC Volendam2-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Volendam2-0FC Utrecht Reserves
FC Utrecht Reserves0-1FC Volendam
FC Utrecht Reserves2-3FC Volendam
FC Volendam0-1FC Utrecht Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Volendam 1504 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1432

	FC Volendam	Draw	FC Utrecht Reserves
Our model	58%	21%	22%
Market	58%	21%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Volendam (rating 1504 vs 1432).
H2H favours FC Volendam: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Volendam	FC Utrecht Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.5	1.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.50

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.25 → 4.25	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +4’	1.60	4.50	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Volendam 5–0–1 FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	2-3 HT 2-1	FC Volendam
08/11/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
04/02/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	2-0 HT 2-0	FC Utrecht Reserves
22/11/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Volendam
16/04/21 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Utrecht Reserves	2-3 HT 2-2	FC Volendam
11/09/20 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Volendam	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Eerste Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	36	13	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	23	9	22
3	VVV	11	7	1	3	30	18	22
4	FC Emmen	11	7	1	3	24	19	22
5	NAC	11	6	2	3	22	19	20
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
7	Roda JC	10	4	4	2	10	8	16
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	23	18	16
9	Maastricht	11	5	1	5	14	25	16
10	RKC	11	3	6	2	20	16	15
11	AZ Reserves	11	4	2	5	26	22	14
12	FC Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	16	19	14
13	PSV Reserves	10	3	4	3	15	17	13
14	Top Oss	11	4	0	7	16	17	12
15	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	13	23	11
16	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	15	23	11
17	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	16	21	9
18	Ajax Reserves	10	2	2	6	13	25	8
19	FC Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	13	27	8
20	FC Utrecht Reserves	10	2	1	7	16	23	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Volendam	FC Utrecht Reserves
Vitesse	2-0 W	1-3 L
VVV	3-2 W	1-3 L
AZ Reserves	1-4 L	1-2 L
Maastricht	0-1 L	1-2 L
Top Oss	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Volendam (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Volendam

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
09/10	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
03/10	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
26/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	3-2	4	1	W
18/09	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
13/09	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
04/09	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	3-5	2	5	L
28/08	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	6-1	8	4	W
21/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
15/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-0	7	3	W

FC Utrecht Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
18/09	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
14/09	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-0	6-1	5	7	W
11/09	NAC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	3-2	1	5	W
07/09	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
31/08	AZ Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
28/08	Top Oss Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
24/08	Heracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-5	1-6	2	1	L
17/08	Vitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
09/08	Maastricht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-1	1-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Volendam vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Volendam win (58%). Probabilities: FC Volendam 58%, draw 21%, FC Utrecht Reserves 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Volendam vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model expects 3.78 goals (FC Volendam 2.36 · FC Utrecht Reserves 1.42), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs FC Utrecht Reserves?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.