Football · France Ligue 2 · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: St Etienne vs Rodez Aveyron

Team pages: St Etienne · Rodez Aveyron

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

St Etienne2.43

Rodez Aveyron1.15

1X2

64% 21% 15%

St Etienne Draw Rodez Aveyron

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

St Etienne 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWLD

Rodez Aveyron 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDLLL

Head-to-head

St Etienne 2–2–2 Rodez Aveyron (6 last)

St Etienne0-0Rodez Aveyron
Rodez Aveyron2-1St Etienne
St Etienne4-0Rodez Aveyron
St Etienne2-0Rodez Aveyron
St Etienne1-1Rodez Aveyron
Rodez Aveyron2-1St Etienne

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Etienne 1558 · Rodez Aveyron 1492

	St Etienne	Draw	Rodez Aveyron
Our model	65%	20%	16%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Etienne (rating 1558 vs 1492).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Etienne	Rodez Aveyron
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.81
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 7.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:10 +3’	1.40	4.20	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:13 +420’	1.40	4.81	7.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St Etienne 2–2–2 Rodez Aveyron

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 France Ligue 1 Play-Offs	St Etienne	0-0 HT 0-0	Rodez Aveyron
02/05/26 France Ligue 2	Rodez Aveyron	2-1 HT 1-0	St Etienne
16/08/25 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	4-0 HT 1-0	Rodez Aveyron
24/05/24 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	2-0 HT 0-0	Rodez Aveyron
10/05/24 France Ligue 2	St Etienne	1-1 HT 1-0	Rodez Aveyron
12/08/23 France Ligue 2	Rodez Aveyron	2-1 HT 1-0	St Etienne

Standings · France Ligue 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Etienne	7	5	1	1	19	8	16
2	Red Star FC 93	7	4	2	1	9	7	14
3	Reims	7	3	4	0	15	9	13
4	Montpellier	7	3	3	1	6	5	12
5	Metz	7	2	4	1	10	7	10
6	Nancy	7	3	1	3	8	7	10
7	Annecy	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
8	Sochaux	7	2	4	1	4	5	10
9	Dijon	7	2	3	2	10	10	9
10	Pau	7	2	2	3	6	6	8
11	Guingamp	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
11	Dunkerque	7	2	2	3	10	12	8
13	Grenoble	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
14	Rodez Aveyron	7	2	1	4	14	16	7
15	Nantes	7	2	1	4	9	13	7
16	Clermont Foot	7	0	6	1	4	6	6
17	Boulogne	7	0	5	2	3	5	5
18	Laval	7	1	2	4	8	14	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Etienne	Rodez Aveyron
Metz	2-2 D	1-4 L
Grenoble	4-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: St Etienne (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Etienne

LLWWWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Metz France Ligue 2	0-0	2-2	6	6	D
12/09	Dunkerque France Ligue 2	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
05/09	Montpellier France Ligue 2	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
31/08	Dijon France Ligue 2	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
22/08	Grenoble France Ligue 2	3-0	4-0	6	4	W
14/08	Clermont Foot France Ligue 2	1-0	3-1	7	2	W
08/08	Sochaux France Ligue 2	3-0	3-0	1	1	W
09/05	Amiens France Ligue 2	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
02/05	Rodez Aveyron France Ligue 2	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
25/04	Troyes France Ligue 2	0-0	0-3	9	6	L

Rodez Aveyron

DWWWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Nancy France Ligue 2	2-1	3-4	4	3	L
11/09	Grenoble France Ligue 2	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
05/09	Metz France Ligue 2	1-3	1-4	7	2	L
28/08	Pau France Ligue 2	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
22/08	Nantes France Ligue 2	1-2	5-2	6	5	W
14/08	Annecy France Ligue 2	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
08/08	Laval France Ligue 2	0-0	3-1	8	3	W
09/05	Annecy France Ligue 2	2-0	2-1	5	0	W
02/05	St Etienne France Ligue 2	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
24/04	Laval France Ligue 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Etienne vs Rodez Aveyron?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Etienne win (64%). Probabilities: St Etienne 64%, draw 21%, Rodez Aveyron 15%.

How many goals are expected in St Etienne vs Rodez Aveyron?

The model expects 3.59 goals (St Etienne 2.43 · Rodez Aveyron 1.15), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St Etienne vs Rodez Aveyron?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.