Football · North Macedonia First League · 09/08, 17:00
Prediction: Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija Tetovo
Team pages: Vardar Skopje · Shkendija Tetovo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Vardar Skopje2
Shkendija Tetovo0.8
1X2
Vardar Skopje
Draw
Shkendija Tetovo
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Vardar Skopje
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Shkendija Tetovo
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vardar Skopje
2–1–3
Shkendija Tetovo
(6 last)
- Vardar Skopje3-0Shkendija Tetovo
- Vardar Skopje0-1Shkendija Tetovo
- Shkendija Tetovo0-1Vardar Skopje
- Vardar Skopje1-1Shkendija Tetovo
- Vardar Skopje1-2Shkendija Tetovo
- Shkendija Tetovo4-0Vardar Skopje
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vardar Skopje 1585 · Shkendija Tetovo 1526
| Vardar Skopje | Draw | Shkendija Tetovo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vardar Skopje (rating 1585 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Shkendija Tetovo: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vardar Skopje | Shkendija Tetovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.7 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 3.4 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vardar Skopje 2–1–3 Shkendija Tetovo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 North Macedonia First League | Vardar Skopje | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Shkendija Tetovo |
| 05/03/26 North Macedonia First League | Vardar Skopje | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Shkendija Tetovo |
| 27/10/25 North Macedonia First League | Shkendija Tetovo | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Vardar Skopje |
| 14/03/25 North Macedonia First League | Vardar Skopje | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Shkendija Tetovo |
| 16/02/25 North Macedonia First League | Vardar Skopje | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Shkendija Tetovo |
| 29/09/24 North Macedonia First League | Shkendija Tetovo | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Vardar Skopje |
Standings · North Macedonia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Sileks | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Tikves Kavadarci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | FC Struga Trim & Lum | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Shkendija Tetovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Vardar Skopje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | KF Shkendija Haracine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Stip | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | FK Skopje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | KF Arsimi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | KF Bashkimi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vardar Skopje
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Riga FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/07 | Riga FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 14/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 07/07 | KuPS Kuopio UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 15/05 | FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Sileks North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
Shkendija Tetovo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Hibernian UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/07 | NK Bravo UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | FK Skopje North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 23/07 | NK Bravo UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/07 | Europa FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/07 | Europa FC UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | FC Zorya Lugansk Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 27/06 | NK Celje Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 23/06 | Hajduk Split Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | FC Koper Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija Tetovo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vardar Skopje win (65%). Probabilities: Vardar Skopje 65%, draw 22%, Shkendija Tetovo 14%.
How many goals are expected in Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija Tetovo?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Vardar Skopje 2 · Shkendija Tetovo 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Vardar Skopje vs Shkendija Tetovo?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.