Football · North Macedonia First League · 08/08, 19:00
Prediction: Bregalnica Stip vs KF Arsimi
Team pages: Bregalnica Stip · KF Arsimi
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Bregalnica Stip1.51
KF Arsimi1.34
1X2
Bregalnica Stip
Draw
KF Arsimi
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bregalnica Stip
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
KF Arsimi
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bregalnica Stip
1–1
KF Arsimi
(2 last)
- KF Arsimi2-1Bregalnica Stip
- Bregalnica Stip2-1KF Arsimi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bregalnica Stip 1587 · KF Arsimi 1508
| Bregalnica Stip | Draw | KF Arsimi | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bregalnica Stip (rating 1587 vs 1508).
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bregalnica Stip | KF Arsimi | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/0/33% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.5 / 9.3 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bregalnica Stip 1–0–1 KF Arsimi
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/25 North Macedonia Second League | KF Arsimi | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bregalnica Stip |
| 10/11/24 North Macedonia Second League | Bregalnica Stip | 2-1 | KF Arsimi |
Standings · North Macedonia First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Sileks | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Tikves Kavadarci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | FC Struga Trim & Lum | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Shkendija Tetovo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Vardar Skopje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | KF Shkendija Haracine | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 7 | Bregalnica Stip | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | FK Skopje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | KF Arsimi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 | KF Bashkimi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bregalnica Stip
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Pobeda Valandovo North Macedonia Second League |
– | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Osogovo Kocani North Macedonia Second League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Belasica Strumica North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | FK Sloga 1934 Vinica North Macedonia Second League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Detonit Plackovica North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | FK Golemo Konjari North Macedonia Second League |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/04 | FK Skopje North Macedonia Second League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | Ohrid North Macedonia Second League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 8 | W |
KF Arsimi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/07 | FC Struga Trim & Lum Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-6 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | FK Sileks North Macedonia First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | KF Shkupi Skopje North Macedonia First League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 19/04 | Rabotnicki Skopje North Macedonia First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Pelister Bitola North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 09/04 | Makedonija Gj. P North Macedonia First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bregalnica Stip vs KF Arsimi?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bregalnica Stip win (41%). Probabilities: Bregalnica Stip 41%, draw 26%, KF Arsimi 33%.
How many goals are expected in Bregalnica Stip vs KF Arsimi?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Bregalnica Stip 1.51 · KF Arsimi 1.34), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bregalnica Stip vs KF Arsimi?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.