Football · North Macedonia First League · 07/09, 19:00

Prediction: Vardar Skopje vs KF Arsimi

Team pages: Vardar Skopje · KF Arsimi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Vardar Skopje2.81

KF Arsimi0.81

1X2

78% 15% 7%

Vardar Skopje Draw KF Arsimi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Vardar Skopje 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLWD

KF Arsimi 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Vardar Skopje 3–2–1 KF Arsimi (6 last)

KF Arsimi1-0Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje5-1KF Arsimi
KF Arsimi1-4Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje1-1KF Arsimi
Vardar Skopje1-1KF Arsimi
KF Arsimi0-1Vardar Skopje

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vardar Skopje 1580 · KF Arsimi 1497

	Vardar Skopje	Draw	KF Arsimi
Our model	78%	15%	7%
Market	78%	15%	7%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vardar Skopje (rating 1580 vs 1497).
H2H favours Vardar Skopje: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vardar Skopje	KF Arsimi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.17

X6.25

213.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.82

2 (+2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	13.00 → 13.00	Bet365 13.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +6’	1.17	6.25	13.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vardar Skopje 3–2–1 KF Arsimi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	1-0 HT 1-0	Vardar Skopje
11/02/26 North Macedonia First League	Vardar Skopje	5-1 HT 4-0	KF Arsimi
18/09/25 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	1-4 HT 0-3	Vardar Skopje
12/07/23 Club Friendly List	Vardar Skopje	1-1 HT 1-0	KF Arsimi
18/02/23 North Macedonia Second League	Vardar Skopje	1-1 HT 0-1	KF Arsimi
20/08/22 North Macedonia Second League	KF Arsimi	0-1	Vardar Skopje

Standings · North Macedonia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shkendija Tetovo	6	5	0	1	14	5	15
2	Tikves Kavadarci	6	3	2	1	15	5	11
3	FC Struga Trim & Lum	5	3	1	1	10	3	10
4	KF Shkendija Haracine	6	3	1	2	5	7	10
5	Vardar Skopje	5	2	1	2	7	5	7
6	KF Arsimi	5	2	1	2	4	9	7
7	FK Sileks	5	2	1	2	11	7	7
8	Bregalnica Stip	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
9	KF Bashkimi	6	1	0	5	3	18	3
10	FK Skopje	6	0	3	3	3	10	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vardar Skopje	KF Arsimi
Tikves Kavadarci	1-1 D	1-5 L
FK Sileks	4-1 W	1-0 W
FC Struga Trim & Lum	0-1 L	1-0 W
Bregalnica Stip	2-0 W	0-4 L
KF Bashkimi	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vardar Skopje (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vardar Skopje

WWWWWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
24/08	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	1-1	4-1	0	3	W
16/08	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
09/08	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
25/07	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/05	Shkendija Tetovo North Macedonia First League	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
15/05	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
09/05	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
02/05	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/04	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	4-0	7-0	8	7	W

KF Arsimi

WDDWWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
22/08	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
14/08	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
08/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-4	9	4	L
24/07	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-4	1-5	2	4	L
23/05	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/05	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/04	KF Shkupi Skopje North Macedonia First League	2-0	5-1	7	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vardar Skopje vs KF Arsimi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vardar Skopje win (78%). Probabilities: Vardar Skopje 78%, draw 15%, KF Arsimi 7%.

How many goals are expected in Vardar Skopje vs KF Arsimi?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Vardar Skopje 2.81 · KF Arsimi 0.81), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vardar Skopje vs KF Arsimi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.