Football · North Macedonia First League · 11/09, 16:00

Prediction: KF Arsimi vs Shkendija Tetovo

Team pages: KF Arsimi · Shkendija Tetovo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

KF Arsimi0.68

Shkendija Tetovo2.01

1X2

11% 20% 68%

KF Arsimi Draw Shkendija Tetovo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 14%

Recent form · 10 last

KF Arsimi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWWDL

Shkendija Tetovo 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWWWL

Head-to-head

KF Arsimi 1–1–1 Shkendija Tetovo (3 last)

Shkendija Tetovo1-0KF Arsimi
KF Arsimi3-0Shkendija Tetovo
Shkendija Tetovo0-0KF Arsimi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KF Arsimi 1492 · Shkendija Tetovo 1546

	KF Arsimi	Draw	Shkendija Tetovo
Our model	11%	22%	68%
Market	12%	19%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shkendija Tetovo (rating 1492 vs 1546).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KF Arsimi	Shkendija Tetovo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.3	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.75

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.93

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +29’	7.50	4.75	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KF Arsimi 1–1–1 Shkendija Tetovo

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 North Macedonia First League	Shkendija Tetovo	1-0 HT 1-0	KF Arsimi
23/11/25 North Macedonia First League	KF Arsimi	3-0 HT 0-0	Shkendija Tetovo
24/08/25 North Macedonia First League	Shkendija Tetovo	0-0 HT 0-0	KF Arsimi

Standings · North Macedonia First League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shkendija Tetovo	6	5	0	1	14	5	15
2	FC Struga Trim & Lum	6	4	1	1	11	3	13
3	Tikves Kavadarci	6	3	2	1	15	5	11
4	Vardar Skopje	6	3	1	2	9	5	10
5	KF Shkendija Haracine	6	3	1	2	5	7	10
6	FK Sileks	6	2	1	3	11	8	7
7	KF Arsimi	6	2	1	3	4	11	7
8	Bregalnica Stip	6	2	0	4	8	11	6
9	KF Bashkimi	6	1	0	5	3	18	3
10	FK Skopje	6	0	3	3	3	10	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KF Arsimi	Shkendija Tetovo
Vardar Skopje	0-2 L	2-0 W
FK Skopje	0-0 D	3-0 W
Bregalnica Stip	0-4 L	4-1 W
Tikves Kavadarci	1-5 L	1-3 L
FC Struga Trim & Lum	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Sileks	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shkendija Tetovo (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KF Arsimi

DDWWLLWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-1	0-2	1	8	L
29/08	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
22/08	KF Shkendija Haracine North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
14/08	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
08/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-4	9	4	L
24/07	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-4	1-5	2	4	L
23/05	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
10/05	KF Bashkimi North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D

Shkendija Tetovo

DWWLWWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Tikves Kavadarci North Macedonia First League	0-1	1-3	5	6	L
28/08	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	2	5	W
24/08	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	1-0	2-1	8	4	W
16/08	Bregalnica Stip North Macedonia First League	0-0	4-1	7	3	W
09/08	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
26/07	FK Skopje North Macedonia First League	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
23/05	Vardar Skopje North Macedonia First League	0-2	0-3	9	9	L
15/05	AP Brera Strumica North Macedonia First League	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
09/05	FC Struga Trim & Lum North Macedonia First League	2-1	3-1	4	6	W
01/05	FK Sileks North Macedonia First League	1-0	1-1	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KF Arsimi vs Shkendija Tetovo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shkendija Tetovo win (68%). Probabilities: KF Arsimi 11%, draw 20%, Shkendija Tetovo 68%.

How many goals are expected in KF Arsimi vs Shkendija Tetovo?

The model expects 2.69 goals (KF Arsimi 0.68 · Shkendija Tetovo 2.01), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KF Arsimi vs Shkendija Tetovo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.