Football · Denmark Division 1 · 29/08, 14:00
Prediction: AaB vs HB Køge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
AaB1.7
HB Køge0.83
1X2
AaB
Draw
HB Køge
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
AaB
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
HB Køge
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AaB
5–1–0
HB Køge
(6 last)
- AaB1-0HB Køge
- HB Køge1-1AaB
- AaB2-1HB Køge
- HB Køge0-2AaB
- HB Køge1-2AaB
- AaB2-0HB Køge
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AaB (rating 1493 vs 1418).
- H2H favours AaB: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AaB | HB Køge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AaB 5–1–0 HB Køge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/26 Denmark Division 1 | AaB | 1-0 HT 1-0 | HB Køge |
| 26/04/26 Denmark Division 1 | HB Køge | 1-1 HT 1-1 | AaB |
| 02/10/25 Denmark Division 1 | AaB | 2-1 HT 0-0 | HB Køge |
| 10/08/25 Denmark Division 1 | HB Køge | 0-2 HT 0-1 | AaB |
| 03/12/23 Denmark Division 1 | HB Køge | 1-2 HT 0-2 | AaB |
| 22/09/23 Denmark Division 1 | AaB | 2-0 HT 1-0 | HB Køge |
Standings · Denmark Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AaB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aarhus Fremad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AB Copenhagen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Esbjerg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Fredericia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | HB Køge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hillerød | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hobro IK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hvidovre IF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kolding IF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vejle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vendsyssel FF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AaB | HB Køge |
|---|---|---|
| Hobro IK | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Fredericia | 0-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Aarhus Fremad | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| B93 Copenhagen | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Middelfart | 1-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: HB Køge (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AaB
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/08 | FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Kolding IF Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 31/07 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Hillerød Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | HB Køge Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 08/05 | Middelfart Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
HB Køge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | Vejle Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | AaB Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Middelfart Denmark Division 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | AaB Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AaB vs HB Køge?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AaB win (57%). Probabilities: AaB 57%, draw 26%, HB Køge 17%.
How many goals are expected in AaB vs HB Køge?
The model expects 2.52 goals (AaB 1.7 · HB Køge 0.83), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in AaB vs HB Køge?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.