Football · Denmark Division 1 · 12/09, 15:00
Prediction: Esbjerg vs HB Køge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Esbjerg1.78
HB Køge0.83
1X2
Esbjerg
Draw
HB Køge
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Esbjerg
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
HB Køge
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Esbjerg
4–1–1
HB Køge
(6 last)
- HB Køge0-1Esbjerg
- Esbjerg3-2HB Køge
- HB Køge0-2Esbjerg
- Esbjerg4-1HB Køge
- HB Køge2-1Esbjerg
- Esbjerg0-0HB Køge
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Esbjerg (rating 1510 vs 1423).
- H2H favours Esbjerg: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Esbjerg | HB Køge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.8 | 1.8 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Esbjerg 4–1–1 HB Køge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 Denmark Division 1 | HB Køge | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Esbjerg |
| 01/09/25 Denmark Division 1 | Esbjerg | 3-2 HT 2-0 | HB Køge |
| 28/02/25 Denmark Division 1 | HB Køge | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Esbjerg |
| 24/08/24 Denmark Division 1 | Esbjerg | 4-1 HT 1-0 | HB Køge |
| 07/05/22 Denmark Division 1 | HB Køge | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Esbjerg |
| 23/04/22 Denmark Division 1 | Esbjerg | 0-0 HT 0-0 | HB Køge |
Standings · Denmark Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vejle | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Hvidovre IF | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Fredericia | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Hobro IK | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | AaB | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Aarhus Fremad | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Vendsyssel FF | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 8 | AB Copenhagen | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Kolding IF | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 10 | Hillerød | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 5 |
| 11 | Esbjerg | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
| 12 | HB Køge | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Esbjerg | HB Køge |
|---|---|---|
| FC Fredericia | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Vejle | 2-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Hobro IK | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Hvidovre IF | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Hillerød | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Kolding IF | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Esbjerg (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Esbjerg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Vendsyssel FF Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Vejle Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Hillerød Denmark Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Kolding IF Denmark Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Lyngby Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Hillerød Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
HB Køge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Hillerød Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | AaB Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Kolding IF Denmark Division 1 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Hvidovre IF Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Aarhus Fremad Denmark Division 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | Vejle Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | FC Fredericia Denmark Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | AaB Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Hobro IK Denmark Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Middelfart Denmark Division 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Esbjerg vs HB Køge?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Esbjerg win (59%). Probabilities: Esbjerg 59%, draw 25%, HB Køge 16%.
How many goals are expected in Esbjerg vs HB Køge?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Esbjerg 1.78 · HB Køge 0.83), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Esbjerg vs HB Køge?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.