Football · Croatia HNL · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb

Team pages: Istra 1961 · Dinamo Zagreb

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Istra 19610.96

Dinamo Zagreb2.25

1X2

14% 21% 66%

Istra 1961 Draw Dinamo Zagreb

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Istra 1961 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLDWL

Dinamo Zagreb 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Istra 1961 2–4 Dinamo Zagreb (6 last)

Istra 19610-2Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb4-0Istra 1961
Istra 19612-1Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb3-0Istra 1961
Istra 19613-0Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb3-1Istra 1961

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Istra 1961 1501 · Dinamo Zagreb 1649

	Istra 1961	Draw	Dinamo Zagreb
Our model	14%	21%	66%
Market	14%	21%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dinamo Zagreb (rating 1501 vs 1649).
H2H favours Dinamo Zagreb: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Istra 1961	Dinamo Zagreb
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.8	2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.33

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.98

2 (-1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	6.59 → 6.22▼	Pinn 6.22
X	4.85 → 4.69▼	Pinn 4.69
2	1.39 → 1.43▲	Pinn 1.43

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +4’	6.59	4.85	1.39
10:12	6.22▼	4.69▼	1.43▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Istra 1961 2–0–4 Dinamo Zagreb

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	0-2 HT 0-2	Dinamo Zagreb
14/02/26 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	4-0 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
09/11/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	2-1 HT 2-0	Dinamo Zagreb
23/08/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	3-0 HT 1-0	Istra 1961
05/04/25 Croatia HNL	Istra 1961	3-0 HT 1-0	Dinamo Zagreb
25/01/25 Croatia HNL	Dinamo Zagreb	3-1 HT 1-1	Istra 1961

Standings · Croatia HNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dinamo Zagreb	3	3	0	0	9	1	9
2	NK Osijek	4	3	0	1	9	5	9
2	NK Varazdin	4	3	0	1	9	5	9
4	Hajduk Split	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
5	HNK Rijeka	3	2	0	1	5	5	6
6	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	4	2	0	2	7	8	6
7	Istra 1961	4	1	1	2	9	8	4
8	Slaven Belupo	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
9	NK Rudes	4	1	0	3	6	13	3
10	HNK Gorica	4	0	0	4	2	9	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Istra 1961	Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Rijeka	2-3 L	2-2 D
Slaven Belupo	3-0 W	2-0 W
Hajduk Split	2-2 D	2-0 W
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	2-3 L	0-0 D
NK Varazdin	0-2 L	3-1 W
HNK Gorica	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dinamo Zagreb (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Istra 1961

LLWWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-2	2-3	4	1	L
15/08	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-0	3-0	5	5	W
09/08	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
01/08	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	1-2	2-3	7	4	L
23/05	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/05	NK Osijek Croatia HNL	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
04/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
27/04	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
22/04	Dinamo Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-2	0-2	2	0	L

Dinamo Zagreb

DWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-1	3-1	5	4	W
14/08	NK Rudes Croatia HNL	2-0	4-0	12	4	W
31/07	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
23/05	NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Croatia HNL	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
17/05	Slaven Belupo Croatia HNL	0-1	4-1	1	1	W
09/05	Hajduk Split Croatia HNL	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
02/05	HNK Gorica Croatia HNL	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
26/04	NK Varazdin Croatia HNL	0-0	2-1	10	2	W
22/04	Istra 1961 Croatia HNL	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
18/04	HNK Rijeka Croatia HNL	1-0	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dinamo Zagreb win (66%). Probabilities: Istra 1961 14%, draw 21%, Dinamo Zagreb 66%.

How many goals are expected in Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Istra 1961 0.96 · Dinamo Zagreb 2.25), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.