Football · Brazil Serie B · 14/11, 20:30

Prediction: Sao Bernardo SP vs Athletic Club MG

Team pages: Sao Bernardo SP · Athletic Club MG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Sao Bernardo SP1.63

Athletic Club MG1.02

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Sao Bernardo SP Draw Athletic Club MG

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Bernardo SP 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Athletic Club MG 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Sao Bernardo SP 1–1 Athletic Club MG (2 last)

Athletic Club MG2-1Sao Bernardo SP
Athletic Club MG1-4Sao Bernardo SP

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Bernardo SP	Athletic Club MG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.251.96

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:12

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.93 → 1.93	Pinn 1.93
X	3.36 → 3.36	Pinn 3.36
2	3.85 → 3.85	Pinn 3.85

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +1’	1.93	3.36	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Bernardo SP 1–0–1 Athletic Club MG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Athletic Club MG	2-1 HT 1-1	Sao Bernardo SP
30/06/24 Brazil Serie C	Athletic Club MG	1-4 HT 0-3	Sao Bernardo SP

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	66	32	70
2	EC Juventude	37	19	11	7	49	26	68
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	53	38	66
4	Criciuma	37	18	8	11	38	31	62
5	Fortaleza	37	16	14	7	44	33	62
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	57	51	58
7	Goias	36	16	7	13	38	41	55
8	Atletico GO	36	14	13	9	42	33	55
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	50	42	55
10	Operario PR	37	15	9	13	49	50	54
11	Sao Bernardo SP	37	14	10	13	52	42	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	51
13	Cuiaba	37	11	14	12	34	32	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42	41	47
15	Nautico	37	12	10	15	40	49	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	43
17	Avai	37	11	7	19	35	47	40
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	45	58	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Bernardo SP	Athletic Club MG
Avai	1-2 L	0-0 D
Cuiaba	2-1 W	0-3 L
EC Juventude	2-2 D	2-0 W
Sport Recife	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Athletic Club MG (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Bernardo SP

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
01/11	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
24/10	Vila Nova Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
18/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
11/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
07/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-1	1-2	9	7	L
03/10	CRB Brazil Serie B	0-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
19/09	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
15/09	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Athletic Club MG

LWDDLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/10	Operario PR Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
18/10	Avai Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
14/10	Londrina Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
07/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
02/10	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
27/09	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
19/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
13/09	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
09/09	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-3	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Bernardo SP vs Athletic Club MG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Bernardo SP win (51%). Probabilities: Sao Bernardo SP 51%, draw 27%, Athletic Club MG 22%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Bernardo SP vs Athletic Club MG?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Sao Bernardo SP 1.63 · Athletic Club MG 1.02), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Bernardo SP vs Athletic Club MG?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.