Football · Brazil Serie B · 14/11, 20:30

Prediction: Ponte Preta vs Operario PR

Team pages: Ponte Preta · Operario PR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Ponte Preta1.43

Operario PR1.46

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Ponte Preta Draw Operario PR

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ponte Preta 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLDDL

Operario PR 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Ponte Preta 2–1–3 Operario PR (6 last)

Operario PR3-2Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta0-1Operario PR
Operario PR1-1Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta3-0Operario PR
Operario PR2-0Ponte Preta
Operario PR1-2Ponte Preta

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Operario PR (rating 1420 vs 1479).
H2H favours Operario PR: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponte Preta	Operario PR
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/0/70%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.3	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.94

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	5.06 → 5.15▲	Pinn 5.15
X	3.92 → 3.97▲	Pinn 3.97
2	1.59 → 1.61▲	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
23:48 +17’	5.06	3.92	1.59
00:49 +17’	5.15▲	3.97▲	1.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponte Preta 2–1–3 Operario PR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	3-2 HT 1-1	Ponte Preta
24/08/24 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	0-1 HT 0-0	Operario PR
11/05/24 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-1 HT 1-0	Ponte Preta
31/07/22 Brazil Serie B	Ponte Preta	3-0 HT 2-0	Operario PR
16/04/22 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	2-0 HT 1-0	Ponte Preta
23/09/21 Brazil Serie B	Operario PR	1-2 HT 1-2	Ponte Preta

Standings · Brazil Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gremio Novorizontino	37	20	10	7	66	32	70
2	EC Juventude	37	19	11	7	49	26	68
3	Vila Nova	37	19	9	9	53	38	66
4	Criciuma	37	18	8	11	38	31	62
5	Fortaleza	37	16	14	7	44	33	62
6	CRB	37	17	7	13	57	51	58
7	Goias	36	16	7	13	38	41	55
8	Atletico GO	36	14	13	9	42	33	55
9	Sport Recife	37	14	13	10	50	42	55
10	Operario PR	37	15	9	13	49	50	54
11	Sao Bernardo SP	37	14	10	13	52	42	52
12	Botafogo SP	37	14	9	14	45	39	51
13	Cuiaba	37	11	14	12	34	32	47
14	Athletic Club MG	36	11	14	11	42	41	47
15	Nautico	37	12	10	15	40	49	46
16	Ceara	36	11	10	15	38	46	43
17	Avai	37	11	7	19	35	47	40
18	Londrina	37	8	8	21	45	58	32
19	America MG	36	7	5	24	26	55	26
20	Ponte Preta	36	3	6	27	21	78	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponte Preta	Operario PR
Criciuma	0-2 L	2-0 W
Gremio Novorizontino	1-5 L	1-2 L
EC Juventude	0-2 L	0-3 L
Botafogo SP	0-2 L	1-2 L
Sport Recife	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Operario PR (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponte Preta

LLWLLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	3	10	L
24/10	Fortaleza Brazil Serie B	2-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/10	Atletico GO Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
13/10	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	1-3	1-5	3	8	L
07/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Cuiaba Brazil Serie B	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
30/09	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
20/09	CRB Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/09	Londrina Brazil Serie B	0-3	0-6	0	3	L
11/09	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	3	4	L

Operario PR

DWDLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Sport Recife Brazil Serie B	2-2	3-2	9	8	W
01/11	Gremio Novorizontino Brazil Serie B	0-2	1-2	0	9	L
24/10	Athletic Club MG Brazil Serie B	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
17/10	America MG Brazil Serie B	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
11/10	Goias Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-2	14	2	L
08/10	Botafogo SP Brazil Serie B	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
03/10	EC Juventude Brazil Serie B	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
26/09	Ceara Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
23/09	Criciuma Brazil Serie B	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
16/09	Nautico Brazil Serie B	1-1	3-3	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponte Preta vs Operario PR?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Operario PR win (37%). Probabilities: Ponte Preta 36%, draw 27%, Operario PR 37%.

How many goals are expected in Ponte Preta vs Operario PR?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Ponte Preta 1.43 · Operario PR 1.46), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponte Preta vs Operario PR?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.