Football · Brazil Paulista Women · 12/07, 23:30
Prediction: Sao Paulo (W) vs Taubate (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Sao Paulo (W)2.66
Taubate (W)0.66
1X2
Sao Paulo (W)
Draw
Taubate (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Sao Paulo (W)
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Taubate (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sao Paulo (W)
6–0
Taubate (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sao Paulo (W) 1580 · Taubate (W) 1455
| Sao Paulo (W) | Draw | Taubate (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 5% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sao Paulo (W) (rating 1580 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Sao Paulo (W): 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sao Paulo (W) | Taubate (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.4 | 1.8 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo (W) 6–0–0 Taubate (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 Brazil Paulista Women | Sao Paulo (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Taubate (W) |
| 02/08/25 Brazil Paulista Women | Taubate (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sao Paulo (W) |
| 20/06/24 Brazil Paulista Women | Taubate (W) | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Sao Paulo (W) |
| 06/06/23 Brazil Paulista Women | Taubate (W) | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Sao Paulo (W) |
| 11/08/22 Brazil Paulista Women | Sao Paulo (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Taubate (W) |
| 01/09/21 Brazil Paulista Women | Taubate (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sao Paulo (W) |
Standings · Brazil Paulista Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferroviaria (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Corinthians (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Taubate (W) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Bragantino (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 6 | Sao Paulo (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Santos (W) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 | Mirassol (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sao Paulo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Mauaense (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Santos (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | EC Juventude (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 12/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Flamengo (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | America MG (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 2 | D |
| 21/04 | Gremio (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/03 | Atletico Mineiro (W) Brazil Serie A1 Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
Taubate (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Vila Nova GO (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Minas Brasilia DF (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 20/05 | Clube Atletico Piauiense (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Sociedade Acao (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | 3B Sport AM (W) Copa do Brazil Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Rio Negro RR (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Paysandu (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Perolas Negras (W) Brazil Serie A2 Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo (W) vs Taubate (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo (W) 82%, draw 12%, Taubate (W) 5%.
How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo (W) vs Taubate (W)?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Sao Paulo (W) 2.66 · Taubate (W) 0.66), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo (W) vs Taubate (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.