Football · Brazil Paulista Women · 26/08, 23:30

Prediction: Ferroviaria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)

Team pages: Ferroviaria (W) · Sao Paulo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Ferroviaria (W)1.08

Sao Paulo (W)1.08

1X2

35% 29% 35%

Ferroviaria (W) Draw Sao Paulo (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferroviaria (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDWWWLWD

Sao Paulo (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLWLWW

Head-to-head

Ferroviaria (W) 3–3–0 Sao Paulo (W) (6 last)

Sao Paulo (W)0-1Ferroviaria (W)
Sao Paulo (W)1-1Ferroviaria (W)
Ferroviaria (W)1-0Sao Paulo (W)
Sao Paulo (W)1-1Ferroviaria (W)
Ferroviaria (W)0-0Sao Paulo (W)
Ferroviaria (W)1-0Sao Paulo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferroviaria (W) 1594 · Sao Paulo (W) 1601

	Ferroviaria (W)	Draw	Sao Paulo (W)
Our model	34%	32%	34%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ferroviaria (W): 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferroviaria (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
22:19 +13’	2.45	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferroviaria (W) 3–3–0 Sao Paulo (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Ferroviaria (W)
16/11/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Sao Paulo (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Ferroviaria (W)
19/08/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Ferroviaria (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo (W)
16/08/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Sao Paulo (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Ferroviaria (W)
09/08/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Ferroviaria (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Sao Paulo (W)
13/04/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Ferroviaria (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo (W)

Standings · Brazil Paulista Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferroviaria (W)	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
2	Palmeiras (W)	6	4	1	1	9	2	13
3	Sao Paulo (W)	6	4	0	2	7	4	12
4	Corinthians (W)	6	3	1	2	14	6	10
5	Bragantino (W)	6	1	4	1	4	9	7
6	Santos (W)	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
7	Taubate (W)	6	1	1	4	6	9	4
8	Mirassol (W)	6	0	1	5	2	18	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferroviaria (W)	Sao Paulo (W)
Bragantino (W)	0-0 D	0-1 L
Taubate (W)	4-2 W	2-1 W
Corinthians (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Palmeiras (W)	2-1 W	0-1 L
Mirassol (W)	4-0 W	2-0 W
Santos (W)	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ferroviaria (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferroviaria (W)

DDLDWWWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
30/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-2	4-2	13	1	W
18/07	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
21/05	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
14/05	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
07/05	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
04/12	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
23/11	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
16/11	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
13/11	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Sao Paulo (W)

WDLLWLWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
28/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
18/07	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
12/07	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
22/05	Bragantino (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
08/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
05/12	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
22/11	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
16/11	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
14/11	Realidade Jovem (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-0	4-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferroviaria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferroviaria (W) win (35%). Probabilities: Ferroviaria (W) 35%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Ferroviaria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Ferroviaria (W) 1.08 · Sao Paulo (W) 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferroviaria (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.